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NoNoYesYesNo
RN1CTR<$100YesNo
Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Yes — but No won instead.
Will Sheffield Wednesday FC vs. Plymouth Argyle FC end in a draw?
Resolved No. 50% of the top Polymarket traders held Yes. The smart money was wrong.
RESOLVED
💀
Lost
Consensus Traders
6
Yes 60%
1 arb excluded
Total Value
$392.34
Combined PnL
$16.11
Smart Money Signal
Yes
3 of 6 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Market Activity
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Outcome Probabilities
Yes0%
No100%
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
No3 traders
Total Value$159.95
Total Shares160
Combined PnL+$55.44
Yes3 traders
Total Value$0
Total Shares149
Combined PnL-$39.33
No — 50%Yes — 50%
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL FlaznorpARB<$100 | Noavg 82.4¢ | $325.42 | $232.39 | -$93.03 | 49% 3959-4107 (8066) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 82.4¢ | $191.47 | $232.39 | +$40.92 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 34¢ | $133.95 | — | -$133.95 | |
GO GoalLineGhost | Noavg 65¢ | $99.45 | $152.51 | +$53.06 | 53% 2162-1905 (4067) |
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100 | Yesavg 23.5¢ | $18.63 | — | -$18.63 | 38% 1014-1686 (2700) |
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100 | Yesavg 26¢ | $10.4 | — | -$10.4 | 36% 477-850 (1327) |
NO NotJump<$100 | Noavg 68¢ | $5.06 | $7.44 | +$2.38 | 51% 850-801 (1651) |
RN1CTR<$100 | Yesavg 34¢ | $10.3 | — | -$10.3 | 55% 5402-4371 (9773) |
OV overtimemarkets.xyz-singles<$100 | Noavg 50¢ | $74 | — | +$0 | 69% 133-60 (193) |
FL
FlaznorpARB<$100Invested
$325.42
Value
$232.39
PnL
-$93.03
Record
49%
3959-4107 (8066)
Both legs:
No$191.4782.4¢+$40.92
Yes$133.9534¢-$133.95
GO
GoalLineGhostInvested
$99.45
Value
$152.51
PnL
+$53.06
Record
53%
2162-1905 (4067)
MA
MadridTimeCTR<$100Invested
$18.63
Value
—
PnL
-$18.63
Record
38%
1014-1686 (2700)
LU
LuckyLooCTR<$100Invested
$10.4
Value
—
PnL
-$10.4
Record
36%
477-850 (1327)
NO
NotJump<$100Invested
$5.06
Value
$7.44
PnL
+$2.38
Record
51%
850-801 (1651)
RN1CTR<$100Invested
$10.3
Value
—
PnL
-$10.3
Record
55%
5402-4371 (9773)
OV
overtimemarkets.xyz-singles<$100Invested
$74
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
69%
133-60 (193)
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Market Info
Condition ID
0xaf2b3ffd...ca781b
Slug
el1-swe-ply-2026-11-14-draw