Stockport County FC vs. Reading FC: O/U 4.5

9 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold Under (69%) · Under at 100¢ · $9K held · ended Nov 14

Over<1¢Under>99¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 69%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$9.0K

Combined PnL

$2.8K

Smart Money Entry

39.7¢ → 100¢

+152% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

9 of 13 top traders (69%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Over0%

Under100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under9 traders

Total Value$5.8K

Total Shares7,255

Combined PnL+$2.8K

Over4 traders

Total Value$113.84

Total Shares197

Combined PnL+$4.58

Under — 69%Over — 31%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Overavg 54.9¢	$3.4K	$3.1K	-$265.49	49% 3821-3983 (7804)
└ Under leg	Underavg 45.5¢	$1.2K	$1.8K	+$548.68
└ Over leg	Overavg 54.9¢	$2.1K	$1.3K	-$814.18
RN1	Underavg 34.1¢	$931.52	$1.6K	+$666.97	55% 5363-4304 (9667)
LI LightParadox	Underavg 37.4¢	$561.66	$1.5K	+$939.48	37% 960-1662 (2622)
MA MadridTime	Underavg 39.4¢	$541.59	$1.4K	+$830.95	37% 970-1635 (2605)
GO GoalLineGhost	Underavg 47.5¢	$428.39	$565.7	+$137.32	53% 2085-1830 (3915)
VE Venusian	Underavg 32¢	$116.87	$365.04	+$248.17	36% 948-1669 (2617)
Secondhandvinyl	Underavg 95¢	$228	$218.4	-$9.6	76% 235-76 (311)
SN SnakeBall	Underavg 49¢	$144.11	$144.11	+$0	47% 895-994 (1889)
SU suntoriCTR	Overavg 55¢	$95.23	$108.22	+$12.99	46% 2653-3138 (5791)
FE ferdinand2<$100	Underavg 46¢	$12.88	$12.6	-$0.28	48% 2074-2236 (4310)
NO NotJump<$100	Underavg 46¢	$9.2	$8.7	-$0.5	52% 820-759 (1579)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Overavg 75¢	$3	$3.02	+$0.02	37% 1028-1723 (2751)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Overavg 23¢	$1.15	$2.6	+$1.45	42% 995-1363 (2358)
PA pauleta23CTR<$100	Overavg 65¢	$9.88	$0.01	-$9.87	40% 433-650 (1083)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Over

Invested

$3,357.29

Value

$3.1K

PnL

-$265.49

Record

49%

3821-3983 (7804)

Both legs:

Under$1,217.9145.5¢+$548.68

Over$2,139.3854.9¢-$814.18

RN1

Under

Invested

$931.52

Value

$1.6K

PnL

+$666.97

Record

55%

5363-4304 (9667)

LightParadox

Under

Invested

$561.66

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$939.48

Record

37%

960-1662 (2622)

MadridTime

Under

Invested

$541.59

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$830.95

Record

37%

970-1635 (2605)

GoalLineGhost

Under

Invested

$428.39

Value

$565.7

PnL

+$137.32

Record

53%

2085-1830 (3915)

Venusian

Under

Invested

$116.87

Value

$365.04

PnL

+$248.17

Record

36%

948-1669 (2617)

Secondhandvinyl

Under

Invested

$228

Value

$218.4

PnL

-$9.6

Record

76%

235-76 (311)

SnakeBall

Under

Invested

$144.11

Value

$144.11

PnL

+$0

Record

47%

895-994 (1889)

suntoriCTR

Over

Invested

$95.23

Value

$108.22

PnL

+$12.99

Record

46%

2653-3138 (5791)

ferdinand2<$100

Under

Invested

$12.88

Value

$12.6

PnL

-$0.28

Record

48%

2074-2236 (4310)

NotJump<$100

Under

Invested

$9.2

Value

$8.7

PnL

-$0.5

Record

52%

820-759 (1579)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Over

Invested

Value

$3.02

PnL

+$0.02

Record

37%

1028-1723 (2751)

sentrioCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$1.15

Value

$2.6

PnL

+$1.45

Record

42%

995-1363 (2358)

pauleta23CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$9.88

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$9.87

Record

40%

433-650 (1083)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

Smart Money Signal

Under

9 of 13 top traders (69%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.