Will Stockport County FC win on 2026-11-14?

3 of 18 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (17%) · Yes at 59¢ · $22K held · ends Nov 14

Yes59¢No41¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 17%

Total Value

$22.3K

Combined PnL

$349.05

Smart Money Entry

57.5¢ → 58.5¢

+2% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 59%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 18 top traders (17%)15 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes59%

No42%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes3 traders

Total Value$13.2K

Total Shares22,522

Combined PnL+$226.32

No15 traders

Total Value$9.1K

Total Shares21,128

Combined PnL+$122.73

Yes — 17%No — 83%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
1L 1l2ihj34li12u34	Yesavg 57.5¢	$12.9K	$13.1K	+$225.97	2% 3-133 (136)
RN1CTR	Noavg 42.5¢	$4.3K	$4.3K	+$100	55% 5362-4303 (9665)
LU LuckyLooCTR	Noavg 43¢	$1.3K	$1.3K	+$14.58	35% 438-797 (1235)
GC GC-PCTR	Noavg 42.8¢	$647.25	$657.52	+$10.27	37% 353-603 (956)
NM NM-PCTR	Noavg 42.6¢	$579.37	$591.4	+$12.03	59% 3763-2587 (6350)
CI cigarettesCTR	Noavg 42¢	$420	$435	+$15	53% 7051-6190 (13241)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Noavg 43.3¢	$430.92	$414.85	-$16.07	49% 3811-3974 (7785)
MO mouzsynapseCTR	Noavg 42¢	$396.82	$410.99	+$14.17	40% 117-175 (292)
VE VenusianCTR	Noavg 42¢	$407.6	$393.04	-$14.56	36% 945-1666 (2611)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR	Noavg 42.5¢	$303.82	$289.5	-$14.32	53% 2083-1825 (3908)
0X 0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382CTR	Noavg 42.5¢	$206.9	$211.85	+$4.95	48% 286-304 (590)
tradecraftCTR<$100	Noavg 42.1¢	$66.15	$63.71	-$2.44	30% 334-774 (1108)
rayvanmechelen<$100	Yesavg 59¢	$38.58	$38.25	-$0.33	9% 30-286 (316)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100	Noavg 47¢	$16.18	$12.95	-$0.79	53% 1343-1170 (2513)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Noavg 47¢	$13.24	$12.78	-$0.46	42% 991-1360 (2351)
RA rabbitfoot1<$100	Yesavg 52¢	$10	$10.67	+$0.67	4% 14-384 (398)
LO lonmi2511CTR<$100	Noavg 42¢	$8	$8.28	+$0.29	59% 708-482 (1190)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR<$100	Noavg 41¢	$6.95	$7.03	+$0.08	25% 340-1018 (1358)

1l2ihj34li12u34

Yes

Invested

$12,899.79

Value

$13.1K

PnL

+$225.97

Record

3-133 (136)

RN1CTR

Invested

$4,250

Value

$4.3K

PnL

+$100

Record

55%

5362-4303 (9665)

LuckyLooCTR

Invested

$1,253.55

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$14.58

Record

35%

438-797 (1235)

GC-PCTR

Invested

$647.25

Value

$657.52

PnL

+$10.27

Record

37%

353-603 (956)

NM-PCTR

Invested

$579.37

Value

$591.4

PnL

+$12.03

Record

59%

3763-2587 (6350)

cigarettesCTR

Invested

$420

Value

$435

PnL

+$15

Record

53%

7051-6190 (13241)

FlaznorpCTR

Invested

$430.92

Value

$414.85

PnL

-$16.07

Record

49%

3811-3974 (7785)

mouzsynapseCTR

Invested

$396.82

Value

$410.99

PnL

+$14.17

Record

40%

117-175 (292)

VenusianCTR

Invested

$407.6

Value

$393.04

PnL

-$14.56

Record

36%

945-1666 (2611)

GoalLineGhostCTR

Invested

$303.82

Value

$289.5

PnL

-$14.32

Record

53%

2083-1825 (3908)

0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382CTR

Invested

$206.9

Value

$211.85

PnL

+$4.95

Record

48%

286-304 (590)

tradecraftCTR<$100

Invested

$66.15

Value

$63.71

PnL

-$2.44

Record

30%

334-774 (1108)

rayvanmechelen<$100

Yes

Invested

$38.58

Value

$38.25

PnL

-$0.33

Record

30-286 (316)

VeryLucky888CTR<$100

Invested

$16.18

Value

$12.95

PnL

-$0.79

Record

53%

1343-1170 (2513)

sentrioCTR<$100

Invested

$13.24

Value

$12.78

PnL

-$0.46

Record

42%

991-1360 (2351)

rabbitfoot1<$100

Yes

Invested

$10

Value

$10.67

PnL

+$0.67

Record

14-384 (398)

lonmi2511CTR<$100

Invested

Value

$8.28

PnL

+$0.29

Record

59%

708-482 (1190)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR<$100

Invested

$6.95

Value

$7.03

PnL

+$0.08

Record

25%

340-1018 (1358)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 59%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 18 top traders (17%)15 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance60.7%

58.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$64.73

Max Loss

-$100.00

164.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.