Will Reading FC win on 2026-11-14?

4 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (44%) · No at 81¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 14

Yes20¢No80¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 44%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$1.2K

Combined PnL

$30.66

Smart Money Entry

78.8¢ → 80.5¢

+2% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 81%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 9 top traders (44%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes20%

No81%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No4 traders

Total Value$864.77

Total Shares1,077

Combined PnL+$15.48

Yes5 traders

Total Value$186.29

Total Shares829

Combined PnL+$15.18

No — 44%Yes — 56%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
CI cigarettes	Noavg 79¢	$790	$805	+$15	53% 7051-6190 (13241)
NM NM-PARB<$100	Noavg 80¢	$149.54	$147.04	-$2.5	59% 3763-2587 (6350)
└ No leg	Noavg 80¢	$105.28	$105.94	+$0.66
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 21¢	$44.26	$41.1	-$3.16
GO GoalLineGhostCTR<$100	Yesavg 21¢	$77	$86.17	+$9.17	53% 2083-1825 (3908)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100	Yesavg 21¢	$44.1	$49.35	+$5.25	53% 1343-1170 (2513)
tradecraft<$100	Noavg 76.1¢	$26.64	$26.77	+$0.13	30% 334-774 (1108)
NA NatoAlfistaCTR<$100	Yesavg 20¢	$25.32	$24.69	-$0.63	43% 180-237 (417)
LI LightParadox<$100	Noavg 76.2¢	$17.64	$17.71	+$0.07	37% 957-1658 (2615)
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100	Yesavg 19¢	$16.7	$17.14	+$0.44	49% 3811-3974 (7785)
LO lonmi2511<$100	Noavg 79¢	$15.01	$15.3	+$0.29	59% 708-482 (1190)
GC GC-PCTR<$100	Yesavg 21¢	$8	$8.95	+$0.95	37% 353-603 (956)

cigarettes

Invested

$790

Value

$805

PnL

+$15

Record

53%

7051-6190 (13241)

NM-PARB<$100

Invested

$149.54

Value

$147.04

PnL

-$2.5

Record

59%

3763-2587 (6350)

Both legs:

No$105.2880¢+$0.66

Yes$44.2621¢-$3.16

GoalLineGhostCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$77

Value

$86.17

PnL

+$9.17

Record

53%

2083-1825 (3908)

VeryLucky888CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$44.1

Value

$49.35

PnL

+$5.25

Record

53%

1343-1170 (2513)

tradecraft<$100

Invested

$26.64

Value

$26.77

PnL

+$0.13

Record

30%

334-774 (1108)

NatoAlfistaCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$25.32

Value

$24.69

PnL

-$0.63

Record

43%

180-237 (417)

LightParadox<$100

Invested

$17.64

Value

$17.71

PnL

+$0.07

Record

37%

957-1658 (2615)

FlaznorpCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$16.7

Value

$17.14

PnL

+$0.44

Record

49%

3811-3974 (7785)

lonmi2511<$100

Invested

$15.01

Value

$15.3

PnL

+$0.29

Record

59%

708-482 (1190)

GC-PCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

Value

$8.95

PnL

+$0.95

Record

37%

353-603 (956)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 81%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 9 top traders (44%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance82.3%

80.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$21.57

Max Loss

-$100.00

121.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.