Will Stockport County FC vs. Reading FC end in a draw?

6 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 100¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 14

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 50%

Total Value

$2.3K

Combined PnL

$215.2

Smart Money Entry

87.7¢ → 100¢

+14% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 12 top traders (50%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No6 traders

Total Value$2.2K

Total Shares2,200

Combined PnL+$215.59

Yes6 traders

Total Value$177.06

Total Shares1,281

Combined PnL-$0.4

No — 50%Yes — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

-3 pts consensus

Breadth

1 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

17% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 83% · 6

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
CI cigarettes	Noavg 83.9¢	$1.2K	$1.4K	+$204.5	53% 7060-6194 (13254)
FL Flaznorp	Noavg 96.6¢	$606.99	$618.44	+$11.46	49% 3821-3983 (7804)
NM NM-PCTR<$100	Yesavg 22¢	$68.16	$71.26	+$3.1	59% 3763-2587 (6350)
GC GC-PCTR<$100	Yesavg 22¢	$45.76	$47.84	+$2.08	37% 353-603 (956)
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	Yesavg 22¢	$40.96	$42.82	+$1.86	35% 440-800 (1240)
dips.<$100	Noavg 86¢	$42.14	$41.89	-$0.25	47% 969-1098 (2067)
SU suitcase6628<$100	Noavg 86¢	$34.4	$34.2	-$0.2	64% 616-345 (961)
RN1<$100	Noavg 96¢	$26.4	$26.54	+$0.14	55% 5363-4304 (9667)
SM smithagent<$100	Noavg 86¢	$9.46	$9.41	-$0.06	45% 656-817 (1473)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Yesavg 3¢	$14.1	$8.7	-$5.4	37% 960-1662 (2622)
tradecraftCTR<$100	Yesavg 22.7¢	$6.08	$3.89	-$2.19	30% 335-776 (1111)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Yesavg 3¢	$2.4	$2.56	+$0.16	47% 895-994 (1889)

cigarettes

Invested

$1,216.5

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$204.5

Record

53%

7060-6194 (13254)

Flaznorp

Invested

$606.99

Value

$618.44

PnL

+$11.46

Record

49%

3821-3983 (7804)

NM-PCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$68.16

Value

$71.26

PnL

+$3.1

Record

59%

3763-2587 (6350)

GC-PCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$45.76

Value

$47.84

PnL

+$2.08

Record

37%

353-603 (956)

LuckyLooCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$40.96

Value

$42.82

PnL

+$1.86

Record

35%

440-800 (1240)

dips.<$100

Invested

$42.14

Value

$41.89

PnL

-$0.25

Record

47%

969-1098 (2067)

suitcase6628<$100

Invested

$34.4

Value

$34.2

PnL

-$0.2

Record

64%

616-345 (961)

RN1<$100

Invested

$26.4

Value

$26.54

PnL

+$0.14

Record

55%

5363-4304 (9667)

smithagent<$100

Invested

$9.46

Value

$9.41

PnL

-$0.06

Record

45%

656-817 (1473)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$14.1

Value

$8.7

PnL

-$5.4

Record

37%

960-1662 (2622)

tradecraftCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$6.08

Value

$3.89

PnL

-$2.19

Record

30%

335-776 (1111)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.4

Value

$2.56

PnL

+$0.16

Record

47%

895-994 (1889)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 12 top traders (50%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

-3 pts consensus

Breadth

1 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

17% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 83% · 6

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.