Will Stevenage FC win on 2026-11-14?

12 of 15 top Polymarket traders hold No (80%) · No at 100¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 14

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 80%

Total Value

$2.0K

Combined PnL

$145

Smart Money Entry

89.3¢ → 99.6¢

+12% since entry · 12 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

12 of 15 top traders (80%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No12 traders

Total Value$2.0K

Total Shares2,024

Combined PnL+$267.53

Yes3 traders

Total Value$11.59

Total Shares2,866

Combined PnL-$122.53

No — 80%Yes — 20%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Mature

32h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

40% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Yes) and the top 1000 (4 on No) disagree here.

whaleYes 100% · 1

Diverging

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 50% · 2

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 50% · 4

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702	Noavg 98.1¢	$345.41	$270.16	+$1.61	39% 1311-2070 (3381)
LU lukibazdonauki754	Noavg 91.5¢	$232.32	$252.63	+$14.98	62% 998-609 (1607)
QW qwen300.fund	Noavg 96.4¢	$801.34	$251.71	+$10.71	49% 43869-46551 (90420)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343	Noavg 33.4¢	$228.85	$225.14	+$225.72	44% 2445-3051 (5496)
KO korda77	Noavg 99.7¢	$204.09	$203.88	-$0.2	32% 7674-16005 (23679)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293	Noavg 99¢	$213.67	$170.89	+$0.85	47% 2105-2397 (4502)
E4 e46m3	Noavg 90.4¢	$151.34	$148.49	+$4.67	63% 33619-19478 (53097)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579	Noavg 98¢	$154.19	$122.28	+$0.96	36% 1206-2165 (3371)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225	Noavg 98.3¢	$107.95	$109.37	+$1.42	38% 2430-3890 (6320)
LO looppau	Noavg 94.3¢	$98.38	$103.83	+$3.55	99% 13202-108 (13310)
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493	Noavg 96.9¢	$181.02	$85.32	+$2.19	53% 4656-4095 (8751)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023	Noavg 98.6¢	$145.63	$68.3	+$1.08	39% 1314-2061 (3375)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR<$100	Yesavg 3.3¢	$89.49	$10.95	-$78.54	50% 21821-22062 (43883)
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100	Yesavg 35.5¢	$34.79	$0.49	-$34.3	51% 27272-25818 (53090)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100	Yesavg 35¢	$10.5	$0.15	-$9.69	58% 47904-34520 (82424)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702

Invested

$345.41

Value

$270.16

PnL

+$1.61

Record

39%

1311-2070 (3381)

lukibazdonauki754

Invested

$232.32

Value

$252.63

PnL

+$14.98

Record

62%

998-609 (1607)

qwen300.fund

Invested

$801.34

Value

$251.71

PnL

+$10.71

Record

49%

43869-46551 (90420)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343

Invested

$228.85

Value

$225.14

PnL

+$225.72

Record

44%

2445-3051 (5496)

korda77

Invested

$204.09

Value

$203.88

PnL

-$0.2

Record

32%

7674-16005 (23679)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293

Invested

$213.67

Value

$170.89

PnL

+$0.85

Record

47%

2105-2397 (4502)

e46m3

Invested

$151.34

Value

$148.49

PnL

+$4.67

Record

63%

33619-19478 (53097)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579

Invested

$154.19

Value

$122.28

PnL

+$0.96

Record

36%

1206-2165 (3371)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225

Invested

$107.95

Value

$109.37

PnL

+$1.42

Record

38%

2430-3890 (6320)

looppau

Invested

$98.38

Value

$103.83

PnL

+$3.55

Record

99%

13202-108 (13310)

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493

Invested

$181.02

Value

$85.32

PnL

+$2.19

Record

53%

4656-4095 (8751)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023

Invested

$145.63

Value

$68.3

PnL

+$1.08

Record

39%

1314-2061 (3375)

omnibus-076daaCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$89.49

Value

$10.95

PnL

-$78.54

Record

50%

21821-22062 (43883)

FlaznorpCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$34.79

Value

$0.49

PnL

-$34.3

Record

51%

27272-25818 (53090)

VeryLucky888CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$10.5

Value

$0.15

PnL

-$9.69

Record

58%

47904-34520 (82424)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

12 of 15 top traders (80%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Mature

32h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

40% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Yes) and the top 1000 (4 on No) disagree here.

whaleYes 100% · 1

Diverging

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 50% · 2

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 50% · 4

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.6¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.