Will Mansfield Town FC win on 2026-11-14?

6 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (75%) · No at 100¢ · $521 held · ends Nov 14

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 75%

Total Value

$520.55

Combined PnL

-$22.62

Smart Money Entry

96.7¢ → 99.6¢

+3% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 8 top traders (75%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No6 traders

Total Value$516.49

Total Shares523

Combined PnL+$14.26

Yes2 traders

Total Value$4.06

Total Shares145

Combined PnL-$36.88

No — 75%Yes — 25%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
E4 e46m3	Noavg 95.5¢	$159.9	$151.48	+$6.27	63% 33619-19478 (53097)
LO looppau	Noavg 95.2¢	$143.67	$146.63	+$6.71	99% 13202-108 (13310)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100	Noavg 98.5¢	$69.81	$65.5	+$0.59	38% 2430-3890 (6320)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100	Noavg 98.8¢	$71.39	$60.94	+$0.47	39% 1311-2070 (3381)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293	Noavg 99¢	$121.36	$58.92	+$0.22	47% 2105-2397 (4502)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100	No	$33.02	$33.02	+$0	44% 2445-3051 (5496)
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100	Yesavg 28¢	$32.17	$3.22	-$28.95	51% 27272-25818 (53090)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100	Yesavg 27¢	$8.1	$0.84	-$7.94	58% 47904-34520 (82424)

e46m3

Invested

$159.9

Value

$151.48

PnL

+$6.27

Record

63%

33619-19478 (53097)

looppau

Invested

$143.67

Value

$146.63

PnL

+$6.71

Record

99%

13202-108 (13310)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100

Invested

$69.81

Value

$65.5

PnL

+$0.59

Record

38%

2430-3890 (6320)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100

Invested

$71.39

Value

$60.94

PnL

+$0.47

Record

39%

1311-2070 (3381)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293

Invested

$121.36

Value

$58.92

PnL

+$0.22

Record

47%

2105-2397 (4502)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100

Invested

$33.02

Value

$33.02

PnL

+$0

Record

44%

2445-3051 (5496)

FlaznorpCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$32.17

Value

$3.22

PnL

-$28.95

Record

51%

27272-25818 (53090)

VeryLucky888CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$8.1

Value

$0.84

PnL

-$7.94

Record

58%

47904-34520 (82424)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 8 top traders (75%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.6¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.