Stevenage FC vs. Luton Town FC: O/U 3.5
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Under (60%) · Under at 83¢ · $895 held · ended Sep 10
⚖️
Neutral
Under
5
Under 60%
$894.55
$168.69
70.8¢ → 82.5¢
+17% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 83%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 97%
Freshness
Fresh
2h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 VeryLucky888 | Underavg 71¢ | $693.94 | $760.21 | +$106.78 | 58% 45427-32914 (78341) |
 RN1CTR<$100 | Overavg 5.1¢ | $26.89 | $75.62 | +$48.73 | 53% 60059-52427 (112486) |
UP UpTheBlues<$100 | Underavg 69.5¢ | $27.65 | $36.03 | +$8.37 | 58% 50268-36310 (86578) |
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846<$100 | Underavg 65¢ | $16.9 | $21.45 | +$4.55 | 59% 31860-22491 (54351) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100 | Overavg 14¢ | $1 | $1.25 | +$0.25 | 35% 18146-33983 (52129) |
VeryLucky888Invested
$693.94
Value
$760.21
PnL
+$106.78
Record
58%
45427-32914 (78341)
RN1CTR<$100Invested
$26.89
Value
$75.62
PnL
+$48.73
Record
53%
60059-52427 (112486)
Invested
$27.65
Value
$36.03
PnL
+$8.37
Record
58%
50268-36310 (86578)
Invested
$16.9
Value
$21.45
PnL
+$4.55
Record
59%
31860-22491 (54351)
Invested
$1
Value
$1.25
PnL
+$0.25
Record
35%
18146-33983 (52129)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
82.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.