Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (100%). 8 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Milton Keynes Dons FC vs. Burton Albion FC: O/U 2.5

8 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Under (89%) · Under at 0.1¢ · $45 held · ended Nov 14

Over>99¢Under<1¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 89%

Total Value

$44.67

Combined PnL

-$14.44

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

8 of 9 top traders (89%)Underdog side (market favors Over 100%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over100%

Under0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under8 traders

Total Value$37.09

Total Shares167

Combined PnL-$15.41

Over1 trader

Total Value$7.57

Total Shares9

Combined PnL+$0.96

Under — 89%Over — 11%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 48%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

80% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 48% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 71% · 7

Aligned

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Under 80% · 10

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100	Underavg 33.4¢	$15.75	$19.78	+$4.03	49% 3821-3983 (7804)
TO topdogbigboi<$100	Overavg 72¢	$6.61	$7.57	+$0.96	37% 1028-1723 (2751)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Underavg 26¢	$8.23	$5.54	-$2.69	37% 970-1635 (2605)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Underavg 33.6¢	$8.45	$4.41	-$4.04	36% 948-1669 (2617)
RN1CTR<$100	Underavg 38.1¢	$5.65	$2.75	-$2.91	55% 5363-4304 (9667)
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	Underavg 26¢	$3.16	$2.13	-$1.03	35% 440-800 (1240)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR<$100	Underavg 37.4¢	$3.43	$1.61	-$1.83	53% 2085-1830 (3915)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Underavg 27¢	$1.35	$0.88	-$0.48	37% 960-1662 (2622)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Underavg 29.7¢	$6.48	$0.01	-$6.47	36% 933-1644 (2577)

FlaznorpCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$15.75

Value

$19.78

PnL

+$4.03

Record

49%

3821-3983 (7804)

topdogbigboi<$100

Over

Invested

$6.61

Value

$7.57

PnL

+$0.96

Record

37%

1028-1723 (2751)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$8.23

Value

$5.54

PnL

-$2.69

Record

37%

970-1635 (2605)

VenusianCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$8.45

Value

$4.41

PnL

-$4.04

Record

36%

948-1669 (2617)

RN1CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$5.65

Value

$2.75

PnL

-$2.91

Record

55%

5363-4304 (9667)

LuckyLooCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$3.16

Value

$2.13

PnL

-$1.03

Record

35%

440-800 (1240)

GoalLineGhostCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$3.43

Value

$1.61

PnL

-$1.83

Record

53%

2085-1830 (3915)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$1.35

Value

$0.88

PnL

-$0.48

Record

37%

960-1662 (2622)

LimousinCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$6.48

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$6.47

Record

36%

933-1644 (2577)

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

Smart Money Signal

Under

8 of 9 top traders (89%)Underdog side (market favors Over 100%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 48%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

80% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 48% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 71% · 7

Aligned

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Under 80% · 10

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.1%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8974.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

9074.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.