Will Burton Albion FC win on 2026-11-14?
5 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (63%) · No at 100¢ · $6K held · ended Nov 14
⚖️
Neutral
No
8
No 63%
1 arb excluded
$5.8K
$31.46
99¢ → 100¢
+1% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 8 top traders (63%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
-5 pts consensus
Breadth
6 traders
Top 2 hold 57%
Freshness
Fresh
1h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
75% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 57% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL Flaznorp | Noavg 99.5¢ | $5.4K | $5.4K | +$6.08 | 49% 3821-3983 (7804) |
LU LuckyLoo | Noavg 96.8¢ | $214.47 | $220.34 | +$5.87 | 35% 440-800 (1240) |
 RN1ARB<$100 | Noavg 96.1¢ | $91.4 | $104.59 | +$13.19 | 55% 5363-4304 (9667) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 96.1¢ | $73.92 | $76.54 | +$2.62 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 0.3¢ | $17.48 | $28.05 | +$10.58 | |
VE Venusian<$100 | Noavg 84¢ | $60.02 | $69.17 | +$9.15 | 36% 948-1669 (2617) |
LI LightParadox<$100 | Noavg 83.7¢ | $46.67 | $53.95 | +$7.28 | 37% 960-1662 (2622) |
MA MadridTime<$100 | Noavg 84¢ | $26.78 | $30.86 | +$4.08 | 37% 970-1635 (2605) |
SU suntoriCTR<$100 | Yesavg 1.2¢ | $0.78 | $0.36 | -$0.42 | 46% 2653-3138 (5791) |
 VeryLucky888CTR<$100 | Yesavg 14¢ | $8.7 | $0.03 | -$0.27 | 53% 1351-1180 (2531) |
GO GoalLineGhostCTR<$100 | Yesavg 14¢ | $0.33 | $0.01 | -$0.31 | 53% 2085-1830 (3915) |
Invested
$5,358.72
Value
$5.4K
PnL
+$6.08
Record
49%
3821-3983 (7804)
Invested
$214.47
Value
$220.34
PnL
+$5.87
Record
35%
440-800 (1240)
RN1ARB<$100Invested
$91.4
Value
$104.59
PnL
+$13.19
Record
55%
5363-4304 (9667)
Both legs:
Invested
$60.02
Value
$69.17
PnL
+$9.15
Record
36%
948-1669 (2617)
Invested
$46.67
Value
$53.95
PnL
+$7.28
Record
37%
960-1662 (2622)
Invested
$26.78
Value
$30.86
PnL
+$4.08
Record
37%
970-1635 (2605)
Invested
$0.78
Value
$0.36
PnL
-$0.42
Record
46%
2653-3138 (5791)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100Invested
$8.7
Value
$0.03
PnL
-$0.27
Record
53%
1351-1180 (2531)
Invested
$0.33
Value
$0.01
PnL
-$0.31
Record
53%
2085-1830 (3915)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.