Will Luton Town FC win on 2026-11-14?
4 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 98¢ · $319 held · ends Nov 14
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Neutral
No
4
No 100%
$319.43
$2.45
97.3¢ → 98¢
+1% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 98%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 4 top traders (100%)3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
LU lukibazdonauki754 | Noavg 97¢ | $222.88 | $225.17 | +$2.3 | 56% 91-72 (163) |
CI cigarettes<$100 | Noavg 97.7¢ | $58.62 | $58.8 | +$0.18 | 53% 5381-4862 (10243) |
ME merod<$100 | Noavg 98¢ | $25.49 | $25.49 | +$0 | 85% 23-4 (27) |
XT xtxpleasecallme<$100 | Noavg 98.3¢ | $10 | $9.97 | -$0.03 | 41% 3040-4429 (7469) |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
98.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.