Will Luton Town FC vs. Cambridge United FC end in a draw?
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (80%) · Yes at 99¢ · $673 held · ends Nov 14
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
5
Yes 80%
$673.23
-$2.43
97.9¢ → 98.8¢
+1% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 99%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 88%
Freshness
Fresh
1h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 88% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL FlyingPlaty | Yesavg 98¢ | $459.19 | $457.78 | -$1.41 | — 3-0 (3) |
 bot-rapin | Yesavg 97.7¢ | $136.78 | $136.78 | +$0 | 100% 33-0 (33) |
LU lukibazdonauki754<$100 | Yesavg 97.4¢ | $68.32 | $68.53 | +$0.21 | 56% 91-72 (163) |
XT xtxpleasecallme<$100 | Yesavg 97.5¢ | $9.99 | $10.01 | +$0.02 | 41% 3007-4413 (7420) |
CI cigarettesCTR<$100 | Noavg 2.3¢ | $1.38 | $0.12 | -$1.26 | 52% 5320-4824 (10144) |
Invested
$459.19
Value
$457.78
PnL
-$1.41
Record
—
3-0 (3)
bot-rapinInvested
$136.78
Value
$136.78
PnL
+$0
Record
100%
33-0 (33)
Invested
$68.32
Value
$68.53
PnL
+$0.21
Record
56%
91-72 (163)
Invested
$9.99
Value
$10.01
PnL
+$0.02
Record
41%
3007-4413 (7420)
Invested
$1.38
Value
$0.12
PnL
-$1.26
Record
52%
5320-4824 (10144)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
98.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.