Will Doncaster Rovers FC vs. Leyton Orient FC end in a draw?

4 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (57%) · Yes at 98¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 14

Yes98¢No2¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 57%

Total Value

$1.1K

Combined PnL

-$20.22

Smart Money Entry

89.5¢ → 97.5¢

+9% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 98%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 7 top traders (57%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes98%

No3%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes4 traders

Total Value$1.1K

Total Shares1,102

Combined PnL+$108.04

No3 traders

Total Value$20.99

Total Shares328

Combined PnL-$128.26

Yes — 57%No — 43%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Mature

24h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

40% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on No) and the top 1000 (4 on Yes) disagree here.

whaleNo 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 50% · 4

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
LU lukibazdonauki754	Yesavg 93.1¢	$635.52	$648.49	+$28.67	62% 998-609 (1607)
Rex416	Yesavg 95¢	$237.5	$242.5	+$5	57% 2631-2014 (4645)
BT btna	Yesavg 66.5¢	$109.94	$160.3	+$50.36	67% 43-21 (64)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Noavg 62.1¢	$104.85	$13.8	-$91.06	51% 27272-25818 (53090)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100	Noavg 18¢	$23.94	$5.87	-$18.07	19% 2981-12794 (15775)
BI Bigggggggg<$100	Yesavg 72.2¢	$66.57	$3.73	+$24.01	28% 3390-8578 (11968)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100	Noavg 67¢	$20.1	$1.32	-$19.14	58% 47904-34520 (82424)

lukibazdonauki754

Yes

Invested

$635.52

Value

$648.49

PnL

+$28.67

Record

62%

998-609 (1607)

Rex416

Yes

Invested

$237.5

Value

$242.5

PnL

+$5

Record

57%

2631-2014 (4645)

btna

Yes

Invested

$109.94

Value

$160.3

PnL

+$50.36

Record

67%

43-21 (64)

FlaznorpCTR

Invested

$104.85

Value

$13.8

PnL

-$91.06

Record

51%

27272-25818 (53090)

LornaPredictsCTR<$100

Invested

$23.94

Value

$5.87

PnL

-$18.07

Record

19%

2981-12794 (15775)

Bigggggggg<$100

Yes

Invested

$66.57

Value

$3.73

PnL

+$24.01

Record

28%

3390-8578 (11968)

VeryLucky888CTR<$100

Invested

$20.1

Value

$1.32

PnL

-$19.14

Record

58%

47904-34520 (82424)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 98%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 7 top traders (57%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Mature

24h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

40% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on No) and the top 1000 (4 on Yes) disagree here.

whaleNo 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 50% · 4

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance98.6%

97.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$1.45

Max Loss

-$100.00

101.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.