Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (99%). 3 of 11 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Doncaster Rovers FC win on 2026-11-14?

3 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (27%) · Yes at 1.4¢ · $674 held · ends Nov 14

Yes1¢No99¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 27%

Total Value

$673.6

Combined PnL

$76.47

Smart Money Entry

17.7¢ → 1.4¢

-92% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 1%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 11 top traders (27%)Underdog side (market favors No 99%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes1%

No99%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No8 traders

Total Value$622.55

Total Shares631

Combined PnL+$541.71

Yes3 traders

Total Value$51.05

Total Shares2,853

Combined PnL-$465.25

No — 73%Yes — 27%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
LU lukibazdonauki754	Noavg 94.8¢	$359.15	$373.63	+$14.48	64% 1253-708 (1961)
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 97.7¢	$97.7	$98.6	+$0.9	50% 65492-65807 (131299)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579	Noavg 96.7¢	$102.26	$58.41	-$0.15	43% 5541-7239 (12780)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100	Noavg 98.6¢	$46.91	$41.91	-$0.11	30% 2853-6533 (9386)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Yesavg 37.2¢	$459.71	$28.78	-$442.61	52% 47368-44608 (91976)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR<$100	Yesavg 2.2¢	$35.01	$22.23	-$12.78	50% 23496-23498 (46994)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100	Noavg 96.1¢	$77.54	$17.97	+$0.18	46% 6626-7759 (14385)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100	Noavg 3.9¢	$36.14	$16.98	+$526.26	46% 6185-7387 (13572)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100	Noavg 94.7¢	$41.03	$10.11	+$0.12	70% 16761-7351 (24112)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100	Noavg 98.3¢	$18.01	$4.94	+$0.04	46% 6881-8137 (15018)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100	Yesavg 33¢	$30	$0.05	-$9.86	59% 52427-37141 (89568)

lukibazdonauki754

Invested

$359.15

Value

$373.63

PnL

+$14.48

Record

64%

1253-708 (1961)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$97.7

Value

$98.6

PnL

+$0.9

Record

50%

65492-65807 (131299)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579

Invested

$102.26

Value

$58.41

PnL

-$0.15

Record

43%

5541-7239 (12780)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100

Invested

$46.91

Value

$41.91

PnL

-$0.11

Record

30%

2853-6533 (9386)

FlaznorpCTR

Yes

Invested

$459.71

Value

$28.78

PnL

-$442.61

Record

52%

47368-44608 (91976)

omnibus-076daaCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$35.01

Value

$22.23

PnL

-$12.78

Record

50%

23496-23498 (46994)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100

Invested

$77.54

Value

$17.97

PnL

+$0.18

Record

46%

6626-7759 (14385)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100

Invested

$36.14

Value

$16.98

PnL

+$526.26

Record

46%

6185-7387 (13572)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100

Invested

$41.03

Value

$10.11

PnL

+$0.12

Record

70%

16761-7351 (24112)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100

Invested

$18.01

Value

$4.94

PnL

+$0.04

Record

46%

6881-8137 (15018)

VeryLucky888CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$30

Value

$0.05

PnL

-$9.86

Record

59%

52427-37141 (89568)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 1%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 11 top traders (27%)Underdog side (market favors No 99%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance2.5%

1.4¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$3957.23

Max Loss

-$100.00

4057.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.