Bromley FC vs. Notts County FC: 1st Half O/U 1.5
2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Under (40%) · Under at 55¢ · $259 held · ends Nov 14
⚖️
Neutral
Under
5
Under 40%
$258.6
-$10.19
62¢ → 54.5¢
-12% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 55%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 5 top traders (40%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
40% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 VeryLucky888 | Underavg 63.2¢ | $129.43 | $108.94 | -$20.49 | 59% 52520-37212 (89732) |
FL Flaznorp | Underavg 59.7¢ | $105 | $57.23 | -$5.47 | 52% 47498-44700 (92198) |
HI hithitfarCTR<$100 | Overavg 36.8¢ | $36.82 | $45.59 | +$10.26 | 58% 950-693 (1643) |
CA canupdatelateronCTR<$100 | Overavg 40¢ | $39.18 | $44.57 | +$5.39 | 63% 674-401 (1075) |
BL BlackMamba08CTR<$100 | Overavg 43¢ | $2.15 | $2.28 | +$0.13 | 47% 116-132 (248) |
VeryLucky888Invested
$129.43
Value
$108.94
PnL
-$20.49
Record
59%
52520-37212 (89732)
Invested
$105
Value
$57.23
PnL
-$5.47
Record
52%
47498-44700 (92198)
Invested
$36.82
Value
$45.59
PnL
+$10.26
Record
58%
950-693 (1643)
Invested
$39.18
Value
$44.57
PnL
+$5.39
Record
63%
674-401 (1075)
Invested
$2.15
Value
$2.28
PnL
+$0.13
Record
47%
116-132 (248)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
54.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.