Will Smouha SC vs. Ceramica Cleopatra Club end in a draw?
1 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (20%) · No at 65¢ · $2K held · ended Sep 8
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 20%
$1.5K
$195.76
Research grade
NeutralNo at 65%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 5 top traders (20%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
1 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
20% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
UP UpTheBlues | Noavg 61.2¢ | $724.56 | $763.92 | +$39.36 | 58% 52330-38533 (90863) |
FL FlaznorpCTR | Yesavg 37.4¢ | $641.8 | $558.88 | +$70.77 | 51% 27272-25818 (53090) |
LI LilybaeumCTR | Yesavg 26.5¢ | $204.05 | $221.45 | +$83.95 | 61% 14484-9384 (23868) |
 RN1CTR<$100 | Yesavg 34¢ | $3.55 | $3.71 | +$0.16 | 53% 63014-55227 (118241) |
PT PT-S7CTR<$100 | Yesavg 5¢ | $0.25 | $1.78 | +$1.53 | 49% 3284-3450 (6734) |
Invested
$724.56
Value
$763.92
PnL
+$39.36
Record
58%
52330-38533 (90863)
Invested
$641.8
Value
$558.88
PnL
+$70.77
Record
51%
27272-25818 (53090)
Invested
$204.05
Value
$221.45
PnL
+$83.95
Record
61%
14484-9384 (23868)
RN1CTR<$100Invested
$3.55
Value
$3.71
PnL
+$0.16
Record
53%
63014-55227 (118241)
Invested
$0.25
Value
$1.78
PnL
+$1.53
Record
49%
3284-3450 (6734)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
64.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.