Will Hull City AFC win on 2026-09-08?
6 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 78¢ · $3K held · ended Sep 8
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 100%
1 arb excluded
$3.2K
-$23.72
80.7¢ → 78¢
-3% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 78%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 6 top traders (100%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
6 traders
Top 2 hold 93%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 93% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
UP UpTheBlues | Noavg 80.5¢ | $1.5K | $1.5K | -$7.53 | 58% 50265-36309 (86574) |
 RN1ARB<$100 | Noavg 81.8¢ | $1.2K | $1.4K | +$244.5 | 53% 60045-52422 (112467) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 81.8¢ | $1.1K | $1.1K | -$51.08 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 3.1¢ | $47.96 | $343.54 | +$295.59 | |
 rayvanmechelen | Noavg 81¢ | $199.99 | $192.59 | -$7.41 | 74% 2420-861 (3281) |
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080<$100 | Noavg 83¢ | $82.96 | $77.97 | -$5 | 51% 1789-1707 (3496) |
 VeryLucky888<$100 | Noavg 80¢ | $34.03 | $33.18 | -$0.85 | 58% 45420-32909 (78329) |
CA Cannae<$100 | Noavg 80¢ | $11.27 | $10.99 | -$0.28 | 53% 16515-14663 (31178) |
PV pvc975<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $12.06 | $9.41 | -$2.64 | 98% 14684-327 (15011) |
Invested
$1,522.06
Value
$1.5K
PnL
-$7.53
Record
58%
50265-36309 (86574)
RN1ARB<$100Invested
$1,155.52
Value
$1.4K
PnL
+$244.5
Record
53%
60045-52422 (112467)
Both legs:
rayvanmechelenInvested
$199.99
Value
$192.59
PnL
-$7.41
Record
74%
2420-861 (3281)
Invested
$82.96
Value
$77.97
PnL
-$5
Record
51%
1789-1707 (3496)
VeryLucky888<$100Invested
$34.03
Value
$33.18
PnL
-$0.85
Record
58%
45420-32909 (78329)
Invested
$11.27
Value
$10.99
PnL
-$0.28
Record
53%
16515-14663 (31178)
Invested
$12.06
Value
$9.41
PnL
-$2.64
Record
98%
14684-327 (15011)
Chat
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
78.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.