Manchester City FC vs. Brighton & Hove Albion FC: O/U 4.5

3 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Under (38%) · Under at 62¢ · $20K held · ended Oct 28

Over39¢Under61¢Ended Wed, Oct 28, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 38%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$20.4K

Combined PnL

$1.4K

Smart Money Entry

50.5¢ → 61.5¢

+22% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 62%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

3 of 8 top traders (38%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over39%

Under62%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under3 traders

Total Value$11.1K

Total Shares18,750

Combined PnL+$1.6K

Over5 traders

Total Value$4.7K

Total Shares9,339

Combined PnL-$197.5

Under — 38%Over — 62%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
DA dashattacker	Underavg 49.2¢	$6.7K	$8.4K	+$1.7K	72% 2286-872 (3158)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR	Overavg 42.9¢	$4.7K	$4.5K	-$200.84	50% 24384-24001 (48385)
RN1ARB<$100	Overavg 54.1¢	$3.6K	$3.6K	-$18.97	54% 55742-47837 (103579)
└ Over leg	Overavg 54.1¢	$2.2K	$2.0K	-$190.4
└ Under leg	Underavg 44.9¢	$1.4K	$1.6K	+$171.43
UP UpTheBlues	Underavg 51.9¢	$1.8K	$1.8K	-$49.13	59% 44644-31046 (75690)
LU LuckyLooARB<$100	Underavg 53¢	$973.3	$963.62	-$9.68	50% 12135-12341 (24476)
└ Under leg	Underavg 53¢	$668.33	$598.98	-$69.36
└ Over leg	Overavg 43.9¢	$304.97	$364.64	+$59.67
RA rabbitfoot1	Underavg 59¢	$880.32	$872.86	-$7.46	53% 1104-975 (2079)
FO fooooolCTR	Overavg 50.9¢	$185.54	$188.86	+$3.31	50% 10545-10397 (20942)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Overavg 23¢	$9.2	$9.2	+$0	50% 32798-32351 (65149)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Overavg 24¢	$1.09	$1.04	-$0.05	53% 3098-2756 (5854)
LA LaarsYCTR<$100	Overavg 20¢	$0.5	$0.58	+$0.08	50% 3375-3317 (6692)

dashattacker

Under

Invested

$6,746.84

Value

$8.4K

PnL

+$1.7K

Record

72%

2286-872 (3158)

GoalLineGhostCTR

Over

Invested

$4,738.46

Value

$4.5K

PnL

-$200.84

Record

50%

24384-24001 (48385)

RN1ARB<$100

Over

Invested

$3,617.21

Value

$3.6K

PnL

-$18.97

Record

54%

55742-47837 (103579)

Both legs:

Over$2,228.9554.1¢-$190.4

Under$1,388.2644.9¢+$171.43

UpTheBlues

Under

Invested

$1,841.86

Value

$1.8K

PnL

-$49.13

Record

59%

44644-31046 (75690)

LuckyLooARB<$100

Under

Invested

$973.3

Value

$963.62

PnL

-$9.68

Record

50%

12135-12341 (24476)

Both legs:

Under$668.3353¢-$69.36

Over$304.9743.9¢+$59.67

rabbitfoot1

Under

Invested

$880.32

Value

$872.86

PnL

-$7.46

Record

53%

1104-975 (2079)

fooooolCTR

Over

Invested

$185.54

Value

$188.86

PnL

+$3.31

Record

50%

10545-10397 (20942)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$9.2

Value

$9.2

PnL

+$0

Record

50%

32798-32351 (65149)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$1.09

Value

$1.04

PnL

-$0.05

Record

53%

3098-2756 (5854)

LaarsYCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$0.5

Value

$0.58

PnL

+$0.08

Record

50%

3375-3317 (6692)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 62%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Under

3 of 8 top traders (38%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance63.7%

61.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$57.06

Max Loss

-$100.00

157.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.