Manchester City FC vs. Brighton & Hove Albion FC: 1st Half O/U 2.5
3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Under (75%) · Under at 100¢ · $2K held · ended Oct 28
⚖️
Neutral
Under
4
Under 75%
$1.7K
-$71.15
88.7¢ → 100¢
+13% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 4 top traders (75%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
DA dashattacker | Underavg 88.6¢ | $1.6K | $1.6K | -$60.71 | 72% 2286-872 (3158) |
 RN1<$100 | Underavg 90.6¢ | $90.63 | $90 | -$0.63 | 54% 55742-47837 (103579) |
LU LuckyLoo<$100 | Underavg 85.1¢ | $14.08 | $13.21 | -$0.88 | 50% 12135-12341 (24476) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | Overavg 7.9¢ | $8.99 | $0.06 | -$8.93 | 53% 3098-2756 (5854) |
Invested
$1,647.35
Value
$1.6K
PnL
-$60.71
Record
72%
2286-872 (3158)
RN1<$100Invested
$90.63
Value
$90
PnL
-$0.63
Record
54%
55742-47837 (103579)
Invested
$14.08
Value
$13.21
PnL
-$0.88
Record
50%
12135-12341 (24476)
HRTradingCTR<$100Invested
$8.99
Value
$0.06
PnL
-$8.93
Record
53%
3098-2756 (5854)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.