Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (100%). 3 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Manchester City FC vs. Brighton & Hove Albion FC: 1st Half O/U 1.5

3 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Under (33%) · Under at 0.1¢ · $7K held · ended Oct 28

Over>99¢Under<1¢Ended Wed, Oct 28, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 33%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$6.7K

Combined PnL

$244.98

Smart Money Entry

68.9¢ → 0.1¢

-100% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

3 of 9 top traders (33%)Underdog side (market favors Over 100%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over100%

Under0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under3 traders

Total Value$4.4K

Total Shares6,252

Combined PnL+$69.65

Over6 traders

Total Value$2.1K

Total Shares2,259

Combined PnL+$175.33

Under — 33%Over — 67%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
DA dashattackerCTR	Underavg 69.4¢	$4.2K	$4.2K	+$68.14	72% 2286-872 (3158)
ZX zxc368	Overavg 99.9¢	$1.3K	$1.3K	+$0.65	99% 12681-184 (12865)
ZaiZoiBele	Overavg 98.8¢	$535.91	$539.92	+$4	80% 4969-1228 (6197)
RN1ARB<$100	Overavg 29¢	$159.43	$166.33	+$6.9	54% 55742-47837 (103579)
└ Over leg	Overavg 29¢	$123.37	$125.49	+$2.13
└ Under leg	Underavg 62.3¢	$36.07	$40.84	+$4.77
poshposh	Overavg 55.1¢	$74.1	$134.43	+$60.33	60% 9402-6388 (15790)
LU LuckyLooCTR	Underavg 59¢	$104.66	$103.77	-$0.89	50% 12135-12341 (24476)
NO NordhavenCap<$100	Overavg 14.3¢	$24.91	$90.03	+$65.12	57% 2074-1552 (3626)
HRTrading<$100	Overavg 26.7¢	$20.93	$78.46	+$57.53	53% 3098-2756 (5854)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100	Underavg 55¢	$37.53	$39.92	+$2.39	58% 40796-29505 (70301)
0X 0x8Cb25E16F2F0893C1bd4d7077325BD4a3b4AdCf5-1774682577191<$100	Overavg 69¢	$20.7	$8.4	-$12.3	47% 4451-4924 (9375)

dashattackerCTR

Under

Invested

$4,166.67

Value

$4.2K

PnL

+$68.14

Record

72%

2286-872 (3158)

zxc368

Over

Invested

$1,297.5

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$0.65

Record

99%

12681-184 (12865)

ZaiZoiBele

Over

Invested

$535.91

Value

$539.92

PnL

+$4

Record

80%

4969-1228 (6197)

RN1ARB<$100

Over

Invested

$159.43

Value

$166.33

PnL

+$6.9

Record

54%

55742-47837 (103579)

Both legs:

Over$123.3729¢+$2.13

Under$36.0762.3¢+$4.77

poshposh

Over

Invested

$74.1

Value

$134.43

PnL

+$60.33

Record

60%

9402-6388 (15790)

LuckyLooCTR

Under

Invested

$104.66

Value

$103.77

PnL

-$0.89

Record

50%

12135-12341 (24476)

NordhavenCap<$100

Over

Invested

$24.91

Value

$90.03

PnL

+$65.12

Record

57%

2074-1552 (3626)

HRTrading<$100

Over

Invested

$20.93

Value

$78.46

PnL

+$57.53

Record

53%

3098-2756 (5854)

VeryLucky888CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$37.53

Value

$39.92

PnL

+$2.39

Record

58%

40796-29505 (70301)

0x8Cb25E16F2F0893C1bd4d7077325BD4a3b4AdCf5-1774682577191<$100

Over

Invested

$20.7

Value

$8.4

PnL

-$12.3

Record

47%

4451-4924 (9375)

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Under

3 of 9 top traders (33%)Underdog side (market favors Over 100%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.1%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8974.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

9074.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.