Manchester City FC vs. Brighton & Hove Albion FC: 1st Half O/U 0.5

6 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Over (55%) · Over at 100¢ · $4K held · ended Oct 28

Over>99¢Under<1¢Ended Wed, Oct 28, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 55%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$4.1K

Combined PnL

-$862.15

Smart Money Entry

94.9¢ → 100¢

+5% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

6 of 11 top traders (55%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over100%

Under0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over6 traders

Total Value$3.7K

Total Shares3,657

Combined PnL+$176.37

Under5 traders

Total Value$257.79

Total Shares3,214

Combined PnL$-1.0K

Over — 55%Under — 45%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
ZX zxc368	Overavg 99.9¢	$3.0K	$3.0K	+$1.5	99% 12681-184 (12865)
NO NordhavenCap	Overavg 49¢	$144.03	$292.46	+$148.43	57% 2074-1552 (3626)
ZaiZoiBele	Overavg 99¢	$220.49	$221.61	+$1.11	80% 4969-1228 (6197)
LU LuckyLooARB<$100	Underavg 21¢	$179.81	$209.37	+$29.56	50% 12135-12341 (24476)
└ Under leg	Underavg 21¢	$112.23	$122.91	+$10.69
└ Over leg	Overavg 60.2¢	$67.58	$86.46	+$18.88
RN1CTR	Underavg 50.1¢	$127.63	$131.15	+$3.52	54% 55742-47837 (103579)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR	Underavg 29¢	$126.87	$100.62	-$26.25	49% 18625-19055 (37680)
poshposh<$100	Overavg 76¢	$75.6	$97.89	+$22.29	60% 9402-6388 (15790)
0X 0x8Cb25E16F2F0893C1bd4d7077325BD4a3b4AdCf5-1774682577191<$100	Overavg 75¢	$27.9	$30	+$2.1	47% 4451-4924 (9375)
PA pauleta23CTR<$100	Underavg 4¢	$20	$13.53	-$6.47	67% 23116-11520 (34636)
RO Rocko33<$100	Overavg 92¢	$11.5	$12.44	+$0.94	64% 997-567 (1564)
DA dashattackerCTR	Underavg 45¢	$1.0K	$11.34	$-1.0K	72% 2286-872 (3158)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Underavg 22¢	$1.1	$1.15	+$0.05	53% 3098-2756 (5854)

zxc368

Over

Invested

$2,997

Value

$3.0K

PnL

+$1.5

Record

99%

12681-184 (12865)

NordhavenCap

Over

Invested

$144.03

Value

$292.46

PnL

+$148.43

Record

57%

2074-1552 (3626)

ZaiZoiBele

Over

Invested

$220.49

Value

$221.61

PnL

+$1.11

Record

80%

4969-1228 (6197)

LuckyLooARB<$100

Under

Invested

$179.81

Value

$209.37

PnL

+$29.56

Record

50%

12135-12341 (24476)

Both legs:

Under$112.2321¢+$10.69

Over$67.5860.2¢+$18.88

RN1CTR

Under

Invested

$127.63

Value

$131.15

PnL

+$3.52

Record

54%

55742-47837 (103579)

omnibus-076daaCTR

Under

Invested

$126.87

Value

$100.62

PnL

-$26.25

Record

49%

18625-19055 (37680)

poshposh<$100

Over

Invested

$75.6

Value

$97.89

PnL

+$22.29

Record

60%

9402-6388 (15790)

0x8Cb25E16F2F0893C1bd4d7077325BD4a3b4AdCf5-1774682577191<$100

Over

Invested

$27.9

Value

$30

PnL

+$2.1

Record

47%

4451-4924 (9375)

pauleta23CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$20

Value

$13.53

PnL

-$6.47

Record

67%

23116-11520 (34636)

Rocko33<$100

Over

Invested

$11.5

Value

$12.44

PnL

+$0.94

Record

64%

997-567 (1564)

dashattackerCTR

Under

Invested

$1,020.71

Value

$11.34

PnL

$-1.0K

Record

72%

2286-872 (3158)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$1.1

Value

$1.15

PnL

+$0.05

Record

53%

3098-2756 (5854)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Over

6 of 11 top traders (55%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.