Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (55%). 4 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Millwall FC vs. Newcastle United FC: O/U 2.5
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Under (80%) · Under at 45¢ · $2K held · ended Sep 8
⚖️
Neutral
Under
5
Under 80%
$1.5K
$632.79
53.7¢ → 44.5¢
-17% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 45%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)Underdog side (market favors Over 55%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 95%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 95% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
UP UpTheBluesCTR | Underavg 46.3¢ | $825.29 | $792.66 | -$32.63 | 58% 52330-38533 (90863) |
FE ferrariChampions2026 | Overavg 39.5¢ | $235.27 | $327.49 | +$92.22 | 42% 8192-11384 (19576) |
FL FlaznorpCTR | Underavg 68¢ | $515.66 | $325.81 | +$542.3 | 51% 27272-25818 (53090) |
PA Pan9XCTR<$100 | Underavg 92¢ | $29.99 | $29.95 | -$0.04 | 54% 10485-8797 (19282) |
LI LilybaeumCTR<$100 | Underavg 87.4¢ | $38.67 | $26.16 | +$30.93 | 61% 14484-9384 (23868) |
Invested
$825.29
Value
$792.66
PnL
-$32.63
Record
58%
52330-38533 (90863)
Invested
$235.27
Value
$327.49
PnL
+$92.22
Record
42%
8192-11384 (19576)
Invested
$515.66
Value
$325.81
PnL
+$542.3
Record
51%
27272-25818 (53090)
Invested
$29.99
Value
$29.95
PnL
-$0.04
Record
54%
10485-8797 (19282)
Invested
$38.67
Value
$26.16
PnL
+$30.93
Record
61%
14484-9384 (23868)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
44.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.