Will Millwall FC vs. Newcastle United FC end in a draw?
2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 81¢ · $6K held · ended Sep 8
⚖️
Neutral
No
4
No 50%
2 arb excluded
$6.3K
$4.2K
63¢ → 80.5¢
+28% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 81%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 4 top traders (50%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
50% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 RN1 | Noavg 62.8¢ | $2.5K | $2.9K | +$4.0K | 53% 63014-55227 (118241) |
FL FlaznorpARB<$100 | Yesavg 36.5¢ | $2.7K | $1.5K | -$497.6 | 51% 27272-25818 (53090) |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 36.5¢ | $1.8K | $970.54 | -$426.66 | |
| └ No leg | Noavg 91.2¢ | $602.95 | $532.01 | -$70.95 | |
UP UpTheBluesARB<$100 | Noavg 93.7¢ | $1.8K | $1.1K | -$673.21 | 58% 52330-38533 (90863) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 93.7¢ | $905.23 | $777.63 | -$127.6 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 49.5¢ | $900.68 | $355.07 | -$545.61 | |
FE ferrariChampions2026 | Noavg 64.2¢ | $530 | $628.84 | +$98.84 | 42% 8192-11384 (19576) |
38 38791873984189CTR | Yesavg 7.3¢ | $212.55 | $91.52 | +$96.97 | 48% 63191-68207 (131398) |
LI LilybaeumCTR<$100 | Yesavg 19¢ | $79.98 | $80.75 | +$7.85 | 61% 14484-9384 (23868) |
RN1Invested
$2,474.97
Value
$2.9K
PnL
+$4.0K
Record
53%
63014-55227 (118241)
Invested
$2,661.03
Value
$1.5K
PnL
-$497.6
Record
51%
27272-25818 (53090)
Both legs:
Invested
$1,805.91
Value
$1.1K
PnL
-$673.21
Record
58%
52330-38533 (90863)
Both legs:
Invested
$530
Value
$628.84
PnL
+$98.84
Record
42%
8192-11384 (19576)
Invested
$212.55
Value
$91.52
PnL
+$96.97
Record
48%
63191-68207 (131398)
Invested
$79.98
Value
$80.75
PnL
+$7.85
Record
61%
14484-9384 (23868)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
80.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.