Liverpool FC vs. Chelsea FC: O/U 1.5

7 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold Over (54%) · Over at 100¢ · $12K held · ended Oct 28

Over>99¢Under<1¢Ended Wed, Oct 28, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 54%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$12.4K

Combined PnL

-$16.33

Smart Money Entry

90.8¢ → 100¢

+10% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

7 of 13 top traders (54%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over100%

Under0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over7 traders

Total Value$9.1K

Total Shares9,924

Combined PnL+$5.5

Under6 traders

Total Value$109.84

Total Shares574

Combined PnL-$21.84

Over — 54%Under — 46%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
CoinTrick	Overavg 99.9¢	$6.4K	$6.4K	+$3.21	98% 3113-75 (3188)
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100	Overavg 75.8¢	$3.2K	$3.1K	-$107.61	50% 24384-24001 (48385)
└ Under leg	Underavg 33.9¢	$1.4K	$1.7K	+$311.66
└ Over leg	Overavg 75.8¢	$1.8K	$1.4K	-$419.27
RN1	Overavg 68¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	-$15.19	54% 55742-47837 (103579)
MR MrBently	Overavg 67¢	$502.5	$498.75	-$3.75	52% 514-470 (984)
LU LuckyLoo	Overavg 76.1¢	$476.31	$481.9	+$5.59	50% 12135-12341 (24476)
ZaiZoiBele	Overavg 99¢	$449.7	$451.97	+$2.27	80% 4969-1228 (6197)
LonnieHawkinss	Overavg 87¢	$164	$177.19	+$13.19	51% 1798-1702 (3500)
CA CannaeCTR<$100	Underavg 19.3¢	$95.69	$81.47	-$14.22	53% 15742-13912 (29654)
HE hedgevaultmainnet1<$100	Overavg 80¢	$27.68	$27.85	+$0.17	53% 2082-1842 (3924)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Underavg 31¢	$14.28	$15.41	+$1.13	53% 3098-2756 (5854)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR<$100	Underavg 40.7¢	$12.2	$12.45	+$0.25	51% 1291-1227 (2518)
0X 0x8Cb25E16F2F0893C1bd4d7077325BD4a3b4AdCf5-1774682577191CTR<$100	Underavg 7¢	$0.35	$0.3	-$0.05	47% 4451-4924 (9375)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Underavg 15¢	$0.18	$0.19	+$0.01	50% 32798-32351 (65149)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100	Underavg 15.1¢	$38.68	$0.03	-$8.96	58% 40796-29505 (70301)

CoinTrick

Over

Invested

$6,420.2

Value

$6.4K

PnL

+$3.21

Record

98%

3113-75 (3188)

GoalLineGhostARB<$100

Over

Invested

$3,230.41

Value

$3.1K

PnL

-$107.61

Record

50%

24384-24001 (48385)

Both legs:

Under$1,396.6133.9¢+$311.66

Over$1,833.875.8¢-$419.27

RN1

Over

Invested

$1,076.72

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$15.19

Record

54%

55742-47837 (103579)

MrBently

Over

Invested

$502.5

Value

$498.75

PnL

-$3.75

Record

52%

514-470 (984)

LuckyLoo

Over

Invested

$476.31

Value

$481.9

PnL

+$5.59

Record

50%

12135-12341 (24476)

ZaiZoiBele

Over

Invested

$449.7

Value

$451.97

PnL

+$2.27

Record

80%

4969-1228 (6197)

LonnieHawkinss

Over

Invested

$164

Value

$177.19

PnL

+$13.19

Record

51%

1798-1702 (3500)

CannaeCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$95.69

Value

$81.47

PnL

-$14.22

Record

53%

15742-13912 (29654)

hedgevaultmainnet1<$100

Over

Invested

$27.68

Value

$27.85

PnL

+$0.17

Record

53%

2082-1842 (3924)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$14.28

Value

$15.41

PnL

+$1.13

Record

53%

3098-2756 (5854)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$12.2

Value

$12.45

PnL

+$0.25

Record

51%

1291-1227 (2518)

0x8Cb25E16F2F0893C1bd4d7077325BD4a3b4AdCf5-1774682577191CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$0.35

Value

$0.3

PnL

-$0.05

Record

47%

4451-4924 (9375)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$0.18

Value

$0.19

PnL

+$0.01

Record

50%

32798-32351 (65149)

VeryLucky888CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$38.68

Value

$0.03

PnL

-$8.96

Record

58%

40796-29505 (70301)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Over

7 of 13 top traders (54%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.