Liverpool FC vs. Chelsea FC: O/U 0.5
4 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Over (50%) · Over at 100¢ · $6K held · ended Oct 28
⚖️
Neutral
Over
8
Over 50%
1 arb excluded
$6.4K
-$148.73
90.5¢ → 100¢
+10% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralOver at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 8 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GO GoalLineGhost | Overavg 89.8¢ | $4.2K | $4.1K | -$84.69 | 50% 24384-24001 (48385) |
 RN1ARB<$100 | Underavg 10.4¢ | $1.7K | $1.5K | -$264.03 | 54% 55742-47837 (103579) |
| └ Over leg | Overavg 94.3¢ | $794.24 | $778.23 | -$16 | |
| └ Under leg | Underavg 10.4¢ | $921.66 | $673.63 | -$248.02 | |
LU LuckyLoo | Overavg 93.8¢ | $711.97 | $680.86 | -$31.11 | 50% 12135-12341 (24476) |
FO fooooolCTR | Underavg 9.9¢ | $109.21 | $83.94 | -$25.27 | 50% 10545-10397 (20942) |
 ZaiZoiBele<$100 | Overavg 99¢ | $49.5 | $48.8 | -$0.7 | 80% 4969-1228 (6197) |
 LonnieHawkinss<$100 | Overavg 88.5¢ | $21.29 | $20.56 | -$0.73 | 51% 1798-1702 (3500) |
OM omnibus-076daaCTR<$100 | Underavg 5.5¢ | $1.04 | $8.89 | +$7.85 | 49% 18625-19055 (37680) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | Underavg 11.1¢ | $1.55 | $1.06 | -$0.48 | 53% 3098-2756 (5854) |
 poshposhCTR<$100 | Underavg 11.1¢ | $13.65 | $0.06 | -$13.59 | 60% 9402-6388 (15790) |
Invested
$4,159.52
Value
$4.1K
PnL
-$84.69
Record
50%
24384-24001 (48385)
RN1ARB<$100Invested
$1,715.89
Value
$1.5K
PnL
-$264.03
Record
54%
55742-47837 (103579)
Both legs:
Invested
$711.97
Value
$680.86
PnL
-$31.11
Record
50%
12135-12341 (24476)
Invested
$109.21
Value
$83.94
PnL
-$25.27
Record
50%
10545-10397 (20942)
ZaiZoiBele<$100Invested
$49.5
Value
$48.8
PnL
-$0.7
Record
80%
4969-1228 (6197)
LonnieHawkinss<$100Invested
$21.29
Value
$20.56
PnL
-$0.73
Record
51%
1798-1702 (3500)
Invested
$1.04
Value
$8.89
PnL
+$7.85
Record
49%
18625-19055 (37680)
HRTradingCTR<$100Invested
$1.55
Value
$1.06
PnL
-$0.48
Record
53%
3098-2756 (5854)
poshposhCTR<$100Invested
$13.65
Value
$0.06
PnL
-$13.59
Record
60%
9402-6388 (15790)
Chat
Sign in with your wallet to post.
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.