Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (100%). 2 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Fleetwood Town FC vs. Arsenal FC: 1st Half O/U 1.5
2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Over (40%) · Over at 0.1¢ · $5K held · ended Oct 27
⚠️
Avoid
Over
5
Over 40%
1 arb excluded
$5.2K
$1.6K
7.6¢ → 0.1¢
-99% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
AvoidOver at 0%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 5 top traders (40%)Underdog side (market favors Under 100%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
DA dashattackerARB<$100 | Underavg 92.6¢ | $4.2K | $3.0K | $-1.2K | 72% 2231-853 (3084) |
| └ Under leg | Underavg 92.6¢ | $3.9K | $1.9K | $-1.9K | |
| └ Over leg | Overavg 18.8¢ | $378.13 | $1.1K | +$705.94 | |
 RN1CTR | Overavg 6.5¢ | $261.21 | $1.8K | +$1.6K | 54% 55386-47442 (102828) |
LE LeLynxMalynx | Underavg 46.4¢ | $123.5 | $122.36 | -$1.14 | 58% 27876-20518 (48394) |
LO lonmi2511<$100 | Underavg 45¢ | $88 | $94.84 | +$6.84 | 63% 1048-604 (1652) |
 poshposhCTR<$100 | Overavg 40¢ | $58.07 | $74.41 | +$16.35 | 60% 9138-6084 (15222) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Underavg 80.8¢ | $43.4 | $35.39 | -$8 | 54% 2639-2268 (4907) |
Invested
$4,229.36
Value
$3.0K
PnL
$-1.2K
Record
72%
2231-853 (3084)
Both legs:
RN1CTRInvested
$261.21
Value
$1.8K
PnL
+$1.6K
Record
54%
55386-47442 (102828)
Invested
$123.5
Value
$122.36
PnL
-$1.14
Record
58%
27876-20518 (48394)
Invested
$88
Value
$94.84
PnL
+$6.84
Record
63%
1048-604 (1652)
poshposhCTR<$100Invested
$58.07
Value
$74.41
PnL
+$16.35
Record
60%
9138-6084 (15222)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$43.4
Value
$35.39
PnL
-$8
Record
54%
2639-2268 (4907)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.