Everton FC vs. Newcastle United FC: 1st Half O/U 1.5

3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Over (50%) · Over at 100¢ · $6K held · ended Oct 29

Over>99¢Under<1¢Ended Thu, Oct 29, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 50%

Total Value

$5.8K

Combined PnL

-$5.18

Smart Money Entry

97.2¢ → 100¢

+3% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

3 of 6 top traders (50%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over100%

Under0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over3 traders

Total Value$5.7K

Total Shares5,810

Combined PnL+$56.22

Under3 traders

Total Value$102.35

Total Shares5,123

Combined PnL-$61.39

Over — 50%Under — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
ZaiZoiBele	Overavg 99¢	$5.6K	$5.7K	+$28.44	80% 4996-1235 (6231)
DA dashattackerCTR	Underavg 93¢	$112.55	$76.24	-$36.31	72% 2343-899 (3242)
RN1<$100	Overavg 13¢	$17.67	$44.89	+$27.21	54% 56053-48184 (104237)
FO forrestgumperCTR<$100	Underavg 1¢	$50	$25	-$25	48% 605-666 (1271)
NO NordhavenCap<$100	Overavg 29¢	$2.04	$2.6	+$0.56	57% 2136-1591 (3727)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Underavg 68¢	$1.19	$1.1	-$0.09	52% 3741-3403 (7144)

ZaiZoiBele

Over

Invested

$5,631.12

Value

$5.7K

PnL

+$28.44

Record

80%

4996-1235 (6231)

dashattackerCTR

Under

Invested

$112.55

Value

$76.24

PnL

-$36.31

Record

72%

2343-899 (3242)

RN1<$100

Over

Invested

$17.67

Value

$44.89

PnL

+$27.21

Record

54%

56053-48184 (104237)

forrestgumperCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$50

Value

$25

PnL

-$25

Record

48%

605-666 (1271)

NordhavenCap<$100

Over

Invested

$2.04

Value

$2.6

PnL

+$0.56

Record

57%

2136-1591 (3727)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$1.19

Value

$1.1

PnL

-$0.09

Record

52%

3741-3403 (7144)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Over

3 of 6 top traders (50%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.