Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (100%). 4 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Everton FC vs. Newcastle United FC: 1st Half O/U 0.5
4 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Under (50%) · Under at 0.1¢ · $2K held · ended Oct 29
⚠️
Avoid
Under
8
Under 50%
$1.6K
$120.91
52.5¢ → 0.1¢
-100% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
AvoidUnder at 0%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 8 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Over 100%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
DA dashattackerCTR | Underavg 60.2¢ | $857.77 | $876.49 | +$18.72 | 72% 2343-899 (3242) |
 ZaiZoiBele | Overavg 98.4¢ | $246.36 | $250.2 | +$3.84 | 80% 4996-1235 (6231) |
 RN1CTR | Underavg 41.3¢ | $169.17 | $240.08 | +$70.91 | 54% 56053-48184 (104237) |
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR | Underavg 27.2¢ | $44.99 | $101.89 | +$56.9 | 49% 671-693 (1364) |
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100 | Overavg 72¢ | $70.2 | $70.2 | +$0 | 58% 28259-20841 (49100) |
UP UpTheBluesCTR<$100 | Underavg 27¢ | $27 | $28 | +$1 | 59% 45140-31520 (76660) |
VA Vampiro1<$100 | Overavg 88¢ | $35.19 | $15.4 | -$19.8 | 77% 3215-970 (4185) |
 poshposh<$100 | Overavg 89¢ | $18.8 | $8.13 | -$10.67 | 59% 9718-6703 (16421) |
Invested
$857.77
Value
$876.49
PnL
+$18.72
Record
72%
2343-899 (3242)
ZaiZoiBeleInvested
$246.36
Value
$250.2
PnL
+$3.84
Record
80%
4996-1235 (6231)
RN1CTRInvested
$169.17
Value
$240.08
PnL
+$70.91
Record
54%
56053-48184 (104237)
Invested
$44.99
Value
$101.89
PnL
+$56.9
Record
49%
671-693 (1364)
Invested
$70.2
Value
$70.2
PnL
+$0
Record
58%
28259-20841 (49100)
Invested
$27
Value
$28
PnL
+$1
Record
59%
45140-31520 (76660)
Invested
$35.19
Value
$15.4
PnL
-$19.8
Record
77%
3215-970 (4185)
poshposh<$100Invested
$18.8
Value
$8.13
PnL
-$10.67
Record
59%
9718-6703 (16421)
Chat
Sign in with your wallet to post.
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.