Crystal Palace FC vs. Middlesbrough FC: O/U 4.5
2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Under (40%) · Under at 93¢ · $261 held · ended Sep 8
⚖️
Neutral
Under
5
Under 40%
$260.77
$98.7
88.8¢ → 92.5¢
+4% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 93%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 5 top traders (40%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
40% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL Flaznorp | Underavg 87.5¢ | $149.98 | $127.08 | +$110.19 | 51% 27272-25818 (53090) |
UP UpTheBlues<$100 | Underavg 90.5¢ | $95.97 | $98.14 | +$2.18 | 58% 52330-38533 (90863) |
FE ferrariChampions2026CTR<$100 | Overavg 12.1¢ | $35.84 | $22.16 | -$13.67 | 42% 8192-11384 (19576) |
38 38791873984189CTR<$100 | Overavg 11.1¢ | $85.37 | $9.94 | +$3.57 | 48% 63191-68207 (131398) |
PA Pan9XCTR<$100 | Overavg 14.4¢ | $10.91 | $3.45 | -$3.56 | 54% 10485-8797 (19282) |
Invested
$149.98
Value
$127.08
PnL
+$110.19
Record
51%
27272-25818 (53090)
Invested
$95.97
Value
$98.14
PnL
+$2.18
Record
58%
52330-38533 (90863)
Invested
$35.84
Value
$22.16
PnL
-$13.67
Record
42%
8192-11384 (19576)
Invested
$85.37
Value
$9.94
PnL
+$3.57
Record
48%
63191-68207 (131398)
Invested
$10.91
Value
$3.45
PnL
-$3.56
Record
54%
10485-8797 (19282)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
92.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.