Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (50%). 0 of 4 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Crystal Palace FC vs. Middlesbrough FC: O/U 3.5
1 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Under (25%) · Under at 50¢ · $2K held · ended Sep 8
⚖️
Neutral
Under
4
Under 25%
1 arb excluded
$1.7K
$1.0K
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 50%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 4 top traders (25%)Underdog side (market favors Over 50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
1 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
25% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL Flaznorp | Underavg 71.3¢ | $1.0K | $952.73 | +$1.2K | 51% 27272-25818 (53090) |
UP UpTheBluesARB<$100 | Underavg 72.3¢ | $204.06 | $305.4 | +$101.34 | 58% 52330-38533 (90863) |
| └ Under leg | Underavg 72.3¢ | $177.81 | $193.17 | +$15.37 | |
| └ Over leg | Overavg 5¢ | $26.26 | $112.23 | +$85.97 | |
 RN1 | Overavg 33.2¢ | $394.25 | $259.01 | -$86.67 | 53% 63014-55227 (118241) |
FE ferrariChampions2026 | Overavg 25.9¢ | $214.27 | $178.61 | -$35.66 | 42% 8192-11384 (19576) |
PA Pan9X<$100 | Overavg 25¢ | $6.25 | $5.38 | -$0.88 | 54% 10485-8797 (19282) |
Invested
$1,004.88
Value
$952.73
PnL
+$1.2K
Record
51%
27272-25818 (53090)
Invested
$204.06
Value
$305.4
PnL
+$101.34
Record
58%
52330-38533 (90863)
Both legs:
RN1Invested
$394.25
Value
$259.01
PnL
-$86.67
Record
53%
63014-55227 (118241)
Invested
$214.27
Value
$178.61
PnL
-$35.66
Record
42%
8192-11384 (19576)
Invested
$6.25
Value
$5.38
PnL
-$0.88
Record
54%
10485-8797 (19282)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
50.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.