Crystal Palace FC vs. Middlesbrough FC: O/U 2.5
4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Under (67%) · Under at 57¢ · $1K held · ended Sep 8
⚖️
Neutral
Under
6
Under 67%
$1.4K
$364.82
46.4¢ → 57.5¢
+24% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 57%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 6 top traders (67%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 87%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
67% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 87% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL Flaznorp | Underavg 44.7¢ | $779.05 | $767.38 | +$266.68 | 51% 27272-25818 (53090) |
UP UpTheBlues | Underavg 53.7¢ | $333.07 | $356.84 | +$23.77 | 58% 52330-38533 (90863) |
 RN1 | Underavg 39.2¢ | $95.68 | $119.63 | +$57.45 | 53% 63014-55227 (118241) |
FE ferrariChampions2026CTR | Overavg 42.4¢ | $107.18 | $108.63 | +$1.45 | 42% 8192-11384 (19576) |
LI Lilybaeum<$100 | Underavg 35¢ | $25.95 | $42.63 | +$16.68 | 61% 14484-9384 (23868) |
PA Pan9XCTR<$100 | Overavg 48¢ | $10.55 | $9.34 | -$1.21 | 54% 10485-8797 (19282) |
Invested
$779.05
Value
$767.38
PnL
+$266.68
Record
51%
27272-25818 (53090)
Invested
$333.07
Value
$356.84
PnL
+$23.77
Record
58%
52330-38533 (90863)
RN1Invested
$95.68
Value
$119.63
PnL
+$57.45
Record
53%
63014-55227 (118241)
Invested
$107.18
Value
$108.63
PnL
+$1.45
Record
42%
8192-11384 (19576)
Invested
$25.95
Value
$42.63
PnL
+$16.68
Record
61%
14484-9384 (23868)
Invested
$10.55
Value
$9.34
PnL
-$1.21
Record
54%
10485-8797 (19282)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
57.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.