AFC Bournemouth vs. Aston Villa FC: 1st Half O/U 1.5
5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Under (83%) · Under at 100¢ · $5K held · ended Oct 28
⚖️
Neutral
Under
6
Under 83%
$5.1K
$1.4K
65.9¢ → 100¢
+52% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 6 top traders (83%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
DA dashattacker | Underavg 73.4¢ | $2.8K | $3.7K | +$936.02 | 72% 2286-872 (3158) |
 RN1 | Underavg 48.9¢ | $747.37 | $1.2K | +$488.68 | 54% 55742-47837 (103579) |
LU LuckyLoo | Underavg 59¢ | $139.84 | $134.14 | -$5.7 | 50% 12135-12341 (24476) |
SN SnakeBall<$100 | Underavg 32¢ | $16 | $31.24 | +$15.25 | 50% 32798-32351 (65149) |
 VeryLucky888<$100 | Underavg 59¢ | $1.45 | $1.54 | +$0.09 | 58% 40796-29505 (70301) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | Overavg 8¢ | $1.04 | $1.3 | +$0.26 | 53% 3098-2756 (5854) |
Invested
$2,795.61
Value
$3.7K
PnL
+$936.02
Record
72%
2286-872 (3158)
RN1Invested
$747.37
Value
$1.2K
PnL
+$488.68
Record
54%
55742-47837 (103579)
Invested
$139.84
Value
$134.14
PnL
-$5.7
Record
50%
12135-12341 (24476)
Invested
$16
Value
$31.24
PnL
+$15.25
Record
50%
32798-32351 (65149)
VeryLucky888<$100Invested
$1.45
Value
$1.54
PnL
+$0.09
Record
58%
40796-29505 (70301)
HRTradingCTR<$100Invested
$1.04
Value
$1.3
PnL
+$0.26
Record
53%
3098-2756 (5854)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.