Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (72%). 4 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

York City FC vs. Northampton Town FC: O/U 3.5

4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Over (80%) · Over at 28¢ · $64 held · ends Nov 7

Over28¢Under72¢Ends Sat, Nov 7, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 80%

Total Value

$63.8

Combined PnL

$12.19

Research grade

AvoidOver at 28%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

4 of 5 top traders (80%)Underdog side (market favors Under 72%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over28%

Under72%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under1 trader

Total Value$43.2

Total Shares60

Combined PnL+$13.2

Over4 traders

Total Value$20.6

Total Shares74

Combined PnL-$1.01

Under — 20%Over — 80%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 86%

Freshness

Fresh

6h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

80% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 86% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleOver 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrOver 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Over 80% · 5

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
OV overtimemarkets.xyz-singles<$100	Underavg 50¢	$30	$43.2	+$13.2	— 1-0 (1)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Overavg 29.6¢	$14.01	$13.26	-$0.76	50% 1843-1850 (3693)
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100	Overavg 30¢	$4.88	$4.55	-$0.33	51% 27202-25761 (52963)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Overavg 29¢	$1.45	$1.4	-$0.03	50% 26397-26018 (52415)
rayvanmechelenCTR<$100	Overavg 26¢	$1.3	$1.4	+$0.1	53% 2695-2376 (5071)

overtimemarkets.xyz-singles<$100

Under

Invested

$30

Value

$43.2

PnL

+$13.2

Record

—

1-0 (1)

LimousinCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$14.01

Value

$13.26

PnL

-$0.76

Record

50%

1843-1850 (3693)

FlaznorpCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$4.88

Value

$4.55

PnL

-$0.33

Record

51%

27202-25761 (52963)

sentrioCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$1.45

Value

$1.4

PnL

-$0.03

Record

50%

26397-26018 (52415)

rayvanmechelenCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$1.3

Value

$1.4

PnL

+$0.1

Record

53%

2695-2376 (5071)

Research grade

AvoidOver at 28%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

Smart Money Signal

Over

4 of 5 top traders (80%)Underdog side (market favors Under 72%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 86%

Freshness

Fresh

6h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

80% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 86% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleOver 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrOver 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Over 80% · 5

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance30.5%

28.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$227.44

Max Loss

-$100.00

327.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.