Plymouth Parkway FC vs. Berkhamsted FC: O/U 3.5
3 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Under (33%) · Under at 84¢ · $511 held · ended Nov 9
⚖️
Neutral
Under
9
Under 33%
$511.01
$17.37
61.2¢ → 84¢
+37% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 84%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 9 top traders (33%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL Flaznorp | Underavg 59.4¢ | $339.31 | $350.73 | +$12.4 | — |
 RN1<$100 | Underavg 66¢ | $67.94 | $68.97 | +$1.03 | — |
VE VenusianCTR | Overavg 37.7¢ | $104.44 | $42.3 | +$2.9 | — |
GO GoalLineGhost<$100 | Underavg 75¢ | $22.5 | $22.65 | +$0.15 | — |
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100 | Overavg 37¢ | $13.31 | $13.65 | +$0.34 | — |
LI LimousinCTR<$100 | Overavg 41¢ | $16.1 | $6.52 | -$0.08 | — |
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100 | Overavg 33¢ | $2.31 | $2.84 | +$0.53 | — |
SE sentrioCTR<$100 | Overavg 33¢ | $1.7 | $2.02 | +$0.32 | — |
 VeryLucky888CTR<$100 | Overavg 39¢ | $17.6 | $1.33 | -$0.21 | — |
Invested
$339.31
Value
$350.73
PnL
+$12.4
Record
—
RN1<$100Invested
$67.94
Value
$68.97
PnL
+$1.03
Record
—
Invested
$104.44
Value
$42.3
PnL
+$2.9
Record
—
Invested
$22.5
Value
$22.65
PnL
+$0.15
Record
—
Invested
$13.31
Value
$13.65
PnL
+$0.34
Record
—
Invested
$16.1
Value
$6.52
PnL
-$0.08
Record
—
Invested
$2.31
Value
$2.84
PnL
+$0.53
Record
—
Invested
$1.7
Value
$2.02
PnL
+$0.32
Record
—
VeryLucky888CTR<$100Invested
$17.6
Value
$1.33
PnL
-$0.21
Record
—
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
84.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.