Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (64%). 3 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Plymouth Parkway FC vs. Berkhamsted FC: O/U 2.5

3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Over (50%) · Over at 36¢ · $4K held · ended Nov 9

Over36¢Under64¢Ended Mon, Nov 9, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 50%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$3.5K

Combined PnL

$105.42

Smart Money Entry

48.2¢ → 36¢

-25% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 36%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

3 of 6 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Under 64%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over36%

Under64%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over3 traders

Total Value$712.72

Total Shares1,243

Combined PnL+$104.3

Under3 traders

Total Value$25.06

Total Shares48

Combined PnL+$1.12

Over — 50%Under — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+25 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 60% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Over 50% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100	Underavg 54.4¢	$1.9K	$1.8K	-$102.87	50% 32-32 (64)
└ Under leg	Underavg 54.4¢	$1.1K	$990.96	-$65.49
└ Over leg	Overavg 51.3¢	$848.29	$810.91	-$37.38
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Underavg 58.5¢	$1.1K	$973.06	-$96.43	52% 236-219 (455)
└ Under leg	Underavg 58.5¢	$829.31	$723.27	-$106.04
└ Over leg	Overavg 47.1¢	$240.18	$249.79	+$9.61
RN1CTR	Overavg 48.9¢	$586.36	$681.85	+$95.49	54% 230-196 (426)
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	Overavg 42.2¢	$15.6	$18.58	+$1.8	48% 35-38 (73)
LI Limousin<$100	Underavg 38¢	$18.19	$18.02	-$0.17	24% 86-278 (364)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Overavg 21¢	$5.26	$12.28	+$7.02	23% 45-152 (197)
VE Venusian<$100	Underavg 38¢	$8.55	$4.49	+$1.24	24% 81-262 (343)
SN SnakeBall<$100	Underavg 50¢	$2.5	$2.55	+$0.05	46% 38-45 (83)

GoalLineGhostARB<$100

Under

Invested

$1,904.74

Value

$1.8K

PnL

-$102.87

Record

50%

32-32 (64)

Both legs:

Under$1,056.4554.4¢-$65.49

Over$848.2951.3¢-$37.38

FlaznorpARB<$100

Under

Invested

$1,069.49

Value

$973.06

PnL

-$96.43

Record

52%

236-219 (455)

Both legs:

Under$829.3158.5¢-$106.04

Over$240.1847.1¢+$9.61

RN1CTR

Over

Invested

$586.36

Value

$681.85

PnL

+$95.49

Record

54%

230-196 (426)

LuckyLooCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$15.6

Value

$18.58

PnL

+$1.8

Record

48%

35-38 (73)

Limousin<$100

Under

Invested

$18.19

Value

$18.02

PnL

-$0.17

Record

24%

86-278 (364)

sentrioCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$5.26

Value

$12.28

PnL

+$7.02

Record

23%

45-152 (197)

Venusian<$100

Under

Invested

$8.55

Value

$4.49

PnL

+$1.24

Record

24%

81-262 (343)

SnakeBall<$100

Under

Invested

$2.5

Value

$2.55

PnL

+$0.05

Record

46%

38-45 (83)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 36%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Over

3 of 6 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Under 64%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+25 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 60% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Over 50% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance38.2%

36.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$162.02

Max Loss

-$100.00

262.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.