Plymouth Parkway FC vs. Berkhamsted FC: O/U 1.5

2 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Over (25%) · Over at 69¢ · $4K held · ended Nov 9

Over69¢Under31¢Ended Mon, Nov 9, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 25%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$3.7K

Combined PnL

-$386

Smart Money Entry

74¢ → 68.5¢

-7% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 69%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

2 of 8 top traders (25%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Over69%

Under32%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over2 traders

Total Value$2.0K

Total Shares2,314

Combined PnL-$220.13

Under6 traders

Total Value$1.4K

Total Shares4,971

Combined PnL-$165.87

Over — 25%Under — 75%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RN1	Overavg 72.3¢	$1.7K	$1.5K	-$138.12	54% 230-196 (426)
LI LightParadoxCTR	Underavg 29.2¢	$651.32	$703.31	+$51.99	25% 84-246 (330)
FL Flaznorp	Overavg 80¢	$557.73	$475.72	-$82.01	52% 236-219 (455)
LI LimousinCTR	Underavg 36¢	$403.21	$352.81	-$50.4	24% 86-278 (364)
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100	Underavg 27¢	$341.78	$287.41	-$54.36	50% 32-32 (64)
└ Over leg	Overavg 83¢	$163.71	$158.81	-$4.9
└ Under leg	Underavg 27¢	$178.07	$128.61	-$49.46
MA MadridTimeCTR	Underavg 27¢	$376.26	$271.74	-$104.52	24% 83-258 (341)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Underavg 50.1¢	$95.25	$37.04	-$58.2	23% 45-152 (197)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Underavg 35¢	$10.55	$5.88	-$4.67	24% 81-262 (343)
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	Underavg 18¢	$1.05	$0.98	-$0.08	48% 35-38 (73)

RN1

Over

Invested

$1,658.96

Value

$1.5K

PnL

-$138.12

Record

54%

230-196 (426)

LightParadoxCTR

Under

Invested

$651.32

Value

$703.31

PnL

+$51.99

Record

25%

84-246 (330)

Flaznorp

Over

Invested

$557.73

Value

$475.72

PnL

-$82.01

Record

52%

236-219 (455)

LimousinCTR

Under

Invested

$403.21

Value

$352.81

PnL

-$50.4

Record

24%

86-278 (364)

GoalLineGhostARB<$100

Under

Invested

$341.78

Value

$287.41

PnL

-$54.36

Record

50%

32-32 (64)

Both legs:

Over$163.7183¢-$4.9

Under$178.0727¢-$49.46

MadridTimeCTR

Under

Invested

$376.26

Value

$271.74

PnL

-$104.52

Record

24%

83-258 (341)

sentrioCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$95.25

Value

$37.04

PnL

-$58.2

Record

23%

45-152 (197)

VenusianCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$10.55

Value

$5.88

PnL

-$4.67

Record

24%

81-262 (343)

LuckyLooCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$1.05

Value

$0.98

PnL

-$0.08

Record

48%

35-38 (73)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 69%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Over

2 of 8 top traders (25%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance70.6%

68.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$41.72

Max Loss

-$100.00

141.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.