Plymouth Parkway FC vs. Berkhamsted FC: O/U 0.5
2 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Over (25%) · Over at 100¢ · $1K held · ended Nov 9
⚖️
Neutral
Over
8
Over 25%
$1.1K
-$272.87
90.5¢ → 100¢
+10% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralOver at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 8 top traders (25%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
1 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
14% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GO GoalLineGhost | Overavg 88.7¢ | $745.73 | $711.01 | -$34.72 | 50% 32-32 (64) |
FL Flaznorp | Overavg 94¢ | $542.86 | $384.21 | -$158.66 | 52% 236-219 (455) |
VE VenusianCTR | Underavg 3.5¢ | $235.14 | $0.12 | -$8.11 | 24% 81-262 (343) |
LI LimousinCTR<$100 | Underavg 13.2¢ | $22.86 | $0.09 | -$22.78 | 24% 86-278 (364) |
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100 | Underavg 18¢ | $22.32 | $0.06 | -$22.25 | 24% 83-258 (341) |
 RN1CTR<$100 | Underavg 17.8¢ | $19.68 | $0.06 | -$19.62 | 54% 230-196 (426) |
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100 | Underavg 12.7¢ | $6.75 | $0.03 | -$6.72 | 25% 84-246 (330) |
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100 | Underavg 5¢ | $0.01 | $0 | -$0.01 | 46% 38-45 (83) |
Invested
$745.73
Value
$711.01
PnL
-$34.72
Record
50%
32-32 (64)
Invested
$542.86
Value
$384.21
PnL
-$158.66
Record
52%
236-219 (455)
Invested
$235.14
Value
$0.12
PnL
-$8.11
Record
24%
81-262 (343)
Invested
$22.86
Value
$0.09
PnL
-$22.78
Record
24%
86-278 (364)
Invested
$22.32
Value
$0.06
PnL
-$22.25
Record
24%
83-258 (341)
RN1CTR<$100Invested
$19.68
Value
$0.06
PnL
-$19.62
Record
54%
230-196 (426)
Invested
$6.75
Value
$0.03
PnL
-$6.72
Record
25%
84-246 (330)
Invested
$0.01
Value
$0
PnL
-$0.01
Record
46%
38-45 (83)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.