Will Plymouth Parkway FC win on 2026-11-09?
2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (40%) · No at 55¢ · $514 held · ends Nov 9
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 40%
$514.31
$2.43
53.4¢ → 54.5¢
+2% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 55%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 5 top traders (40%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL Flaznorp | Noavg 53.4¢ | $273.11 | $278.91 | +$5.8 | 52% 49335-46295 (95630) |
OV overtimemarkets.xyz-singlesCTR | Yesavg 50¢ | $136 | $136 | +$0 | 57% 213-159 (372) |
LI LimousinCTR<$100 | Yesavg 47.2¢ | $90.23 | $86.91 | -$3.33 | 46% 2696-3123 (5819) |
SE sentrio<$100 | Noavg 54¢ | $10.12 | $10.21 | +$0.09 | 51% 28769-28143 (56912) |
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100 | Yesavg 48.2¢ | $2.41 | $2.28 | -$0.14 | 45% 2614-3160 (5774) |
Invested
$273.11
Value
$278.91
PnL
+$5.8
Record
52%
49335-46295 (95630)
Invested
$136
Value
$136
PnL
+$0
Record
57%
213-159 (372)
Invested
$90.23
Value
$86.91
PnL
-$3.33
Record
46%
2696-3123 (5819)
Invested
$10.12
Value
$10.21
PnL
+$0.09
Record
51%
28769-28143 (56912)
Invested
$2.41
Value
$2.28
PnL
-$0.14
Record
45%
2614-3160 (5774)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
54.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.