Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (56%). 6 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Plymouth Parkway FC vs. Berkhamsted FC: Both Teams to Score
6 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (75%) · No at 45¢ · $537 held · ended Nov 9
⚖️
Neutral
No
8
No 75%
1 arb excluded
$537.14
-$122.61
47.6¢ → 44.5¢
-7% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 45%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 8 top traders (75%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 56%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
-2 pts consensus
Breadth
7 traders
Top 2 hold 90%
Freshness
Fresh
2h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
78% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 90% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 RN1CTR | Noavg 48¢ | $461.54 | $346.15 | -$115.38 | 54% 230-196 (426) |
FL FlaznorpARB<$100 | Yesavg 65¢ | $140.69 | $129.58 | -$11.11 | 52% 236-219 (455) |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 65¢ | $79.86 | $78.63 | -$1.23 | |
| └ No leg | Noavg 43¢ | $60.83 | $50.95 | -$9.88 | |
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100 | Noavg 47¢ | $21.76 | $16.66 | -$5.09 | 46% 38-45 (83) |
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100 | Noavg 45¢ | $18 | $14.4 | -$3.6 | 25% 84-246 (330) |
 VeryLucky888<$100 | Yesavg 58¢ | $25.23 | $11.84 | +$1.27 | 53% 55-48 (103) |
LI LimousinCTR<$100 | Noavg 42¢ | $6.94 | $6.66 | -$0.28 | 24% 86-278 (364) |
VE VenusianCTR<$100 | Noavg 42.9¢ | $5 | $6 | -$0.23 | 24% 81-262 (343) |
MA MadridTime<$100 | Yesavg 49¢ | $4.6 | $5.26 | +$0.66 | 24% 83-258 (341) |
SE sentrioCTR<$100 | Noavg 38¢ | $0.54 | $0.58 | +$0.04 | 23% 45-152 (197) |
RN1CTRInvested
$461.54
Value
$346.15
PnL
-$115.38
Record
54%
230-196 (426)
Invested
$140.69
Value
$129.58
PnL
-$11.11
Record
52%
236-219 (455)
Both legs:
Invested
$21.76
Value
$16.66
PnL
-$5.09
Record
46%
38-45 (83)
Invested
$18
Value
$14.4
PnL
-$3.6
Record
25%
84-246 (330)
VeryLucky888<$100Invested
$25.23
Value
$11.84
PnL
+$1.27
Record
53%
55-48 (103)
Invested
$6.94
Value
$6.66
PnL
-$0.28
Record
24%
86-278 (364)
Invested
$5
Value
$6
PnL
-$0.23
Record
24%
81-262 (343)
Invested
$4.6
Value
$5.26
PnL
+$0.66
Record
24%
83-258 (341)
Invested
$0.54
Value
$0.58
PnL
+$0.04
Record
23%
45-152 (197)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
44.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.