Will Berkhamsted FC win on 2026-11-09?

6 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 80¢ · $532 held · ended Nov 9

Yes21¢No79¢Ended Mon, Nov 9, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 67%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$532.01

Combined PnL

$5.32

Smart Money Entry

77.8¢ → 79.5¢

+2% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 80%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 9 top traders (67%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes21%

No80%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No6 traders

Total Value$374.08

Total Shares449

Combined PnL+$8.07

Yes3 traders

Total Value$83.54

Total Shares328

Combined PnL-$2.76

No — 67%Yes — 33%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 90%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

80% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 90% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

Top 1000No 80% · 5

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
SN SnakeBall	Noavg 79¢	$140.39	$142.17	+$1.78	—
FL Flaznorp	Noavg 76.6¢	$108.46	$111.9	+$3.44	—
RN1ARB<$100	Noavg 79¢	$71.55	$74.4	+$2.85	—
└ No leg	Noavg 79¢	$37.62	$37.86	+$0.24
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 19¢	$33.93	$36.54	+$2.61
LU LuckyLoo<$100	Noavg 77.9¢	$65.77	$67.17	+$1.39	—
GO GoalLineGhostCTR<$100	Yesavg 22¢	$61.81	$60.67	-$1.15	—
LI LightParadox<$100	Noavg 82¢	$30.6	$29.97	-$0.63	—
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100	Yesavg 20.4¢	$20.88	$18.97	-$1.91	—
SE sentrio<$100	Noavg 74.4¢	$12.51	$13.52	+$1.01	—
MA MadridTime<$100	Noavg 70¢	$8.27	$9.35	+$1.09	—
machinelearnedCTR<$100	Yesavg 18¢	$3.6	$3.9	+$0.3	—

SnakeBall

Invested

$140.39

Value

$142.17

PnL

+$1.78

Record

—

Flaznorp

Invested

$108.46

Value

$111.9

PnL

+$3.44

Record

—

RN1ARB<$100

Invested

$71.55

Value

$74.4

PnL

+$2.85

Record

—

Both legs:

No$37.6279¢+$0.24

Yes$33.9319¢+$2.61

LuckyLoo<$100

Invested

$65.77

Value

$67.17

PnL

+$1.39

Record

—

GoalLineGhostCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$61.81

Value

$60.67

PnL

-$1.15

Record

—

LightParadox<$100

Invested

$30.6

Value

$29.97

PnL

-$0.63

Record

—

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$20.88

Value

$18.97

PnL

-$1.91

Record

—

sentrio<$100

Invested

$12.51

Value

$13.52

PnL

+$1.01

Record

—

MadridTime<$100

Invested

$8.27

Value

$9.35

PnL

+$1.09

Record

—

machinelearnedCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.6

Value

$3.9

PnL

+$0.3

Record

—

Research grade

NeutralNo at 80%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 9 top traders (67%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 90%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

80% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 90% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

Top 1000No 80% · 5

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance81.3%

79.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$23.02

Max Loss

-$100.00

123.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.