Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (74%). 3 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Stevenage FC win on 2026-11-07?

3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (60%) · No at 27¢ · $212 held · ended Nov 7

Yes74¢No26¢Ended Sat, Nov 7, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Consensus Traders

No 60%

Total Value

$211.63

Combined PnL

-$60.95

Smart Money Entry

66.1¢ → 26.5¢

-60% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

AvoidNo at 27%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 5 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 74%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Yes74%

No27%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No3 traders

Total Value$205.32

Total Shares370

Combined PnL-$63.59

Yes2 traders

Total Value$6.31

Total Shares13

Combined PnL+$2.65

No — 60%Yes — 40%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
LI LightParadoxCTR	Noavg 69.1¢	$124.29	$113.69	-$10.61	49% 1800-1900 (3700)
MA MadridTimeCTR	Noavg 64¢	$133.57	$81.39	-$52.18	48% 1775-1911 (3686)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Noavg 65.2¢	$11.05	$10.24	-$0.81	49% 1843-1935 (3778)
LI Limousin<$100	Yesavg 30¢	$2.1	$3.4	+$1.29	50% 1850-1863 (3713)
FL Flaznorp<$100	Yesavg 25.9¢	$1.56	$2.91	+$1.35	51% 27227-25781 (53008)

LightParadoxCTR

Invested

$124.29

Value

$113.69

PnL

-$10.61

Record

49%

1800-1900 (3700)

MadridTimeCTR

Invested

$133.57

Value

$81.39

PnL

-$52.18

Record

48%

1775-1911 (3686)

VenusianCTR<$100

Invested

$11.05

Value

$10.24

PnL

-$0.81

Record

49%

1843-1935 (3778)

Limousin<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.1

Value

$3.4

PnL

+$1.29

Record

50%

1850-1863 (3713)

Flaznorp<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.56

Value

$2.91

PnL

+$1.35

Record

51%

27227-25781 (53008)

Research grade

AvoidNo at 27%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 5 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 74%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance28.5%

26.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$250.92

Max Loss

-$100.00

350.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.