Will Oxford United FC win on 2026-11-07?

5 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (63%) · No at 86¢ · $5K held · ended Nov 7

Yes14¢No86¢Ended Sat, Nov 7, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 63%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$4.9K

Combined PnL

$854.62

Smart Money Entry

61.9¢ → 85.5¢

+38% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 86%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 8 top traders (63%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes14%

No86%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No5 traders

Total Value$3.4K

Total Shares4,020

Combined PnL+$829.76

Yes3 traders

Total Value$385.2

Total Shares663

Combined PnL+$24.87

No — 63%Yes — 37%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Noavg 59.9¢	$1.4K	$1.9K	+$489.25	51% 27227-25781 (53008)
MA MadridTime	Noavg 64.5¢	$1.0K	$1.4K	+$324.97	48% 1775-1911 (3686)
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100	Yesavg 37.3¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	-$47.13	50% 28937-28754 (57691)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 37.3¢	$679.63	$628.82	-$50.81
└ No leg	Noavg 65¢	$442.08	$445.76	+$3.68
LI LimousinCTR	Yesavg 44.2¢	$222	$243.46	+$21.46	50% 1850-1863 (3713)
OV overtimemarkets.xyz-singlesCTR	Yesavg 50¢	$124	$124	+$0	— 1-0 (1)
LI LightParadox<$100	Noavg 66¢	$76.36	$97.76	+$21.4	49% 1800-1900 (3700)
rayvanmechelen<$100	Noavg 59.8¢	$60.76	$52.32	-$8.44	53% 2699-2381 (5080)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Yesavg 39.2¢	$14.33	$17.74	+$3.41	49% 1843-1935 (3778)
SE sentrio<$100	Noavg 65¢	$8.57	$11.15	+$2.57	50% 26409-26025 (52434)

Flaznorp

Invested

$1,377.17

Value

$1.9K

PnL

+$489.25

Record

51%

27227-25781 (53008)

MadridTime

Invested

$1,046.24

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$324.97

Record

48%

1775-1911 (3686)

GoalLineGhostARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$1,121.71

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$47.13

Record

50%

28937-28754 (57691)

Both legs:

Yes$679.6337.3¢-$50.81

No$442.0865¢+$3.68

LimousinCTR

Yes

Invested

$222

Value

$243.46

PnL

+$21.46

Record

50%

1850-1863 (3713)

overtimemarkets.xyz-singlesCTR

Yes

Invested

$124

Value

$124

PnL

+$0

Record

—

1-0 (1)

LightParadox<$100

Invested

$76.36

Value

$97.76

PnL

+$21.4

Record

49%

1800-1900 (3700)

rayvanmechelen<$100

Invested

$60.76

Value

$52.32

PnL

-$8.44

Record

53%

2699-2381 (5080)

VenusianCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$14.33

Value

$17.74

PnL

+$3.41

Record

49%

1843-1935 (3778)

sentrio<$100

Invested

$8.57

Value

$11.15

PnL

+$2.57

Record

50%

26409-26025 (52434)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 86%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 8 top traders (63%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance87.1%

85.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$14.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

114.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.