Will Sheffield Wednesday FC win on 2026-11-08?

9 of 14 top Polymarket traders hold No (64%) · No at 70¢ · $7K held · ended Nov 8

Yes31¢No69¢Ended Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 64%

Total Value

$6.7K

Combined PnL

$663.12

Smart Money Entry

63.9¢ → 69.5¢

+9% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 70%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

9 of 14 top traders (64%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes31%

No70%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes5 traders

Total Value$2.3K

Total Shares4,952

Combined PnL+$245.41

No9 traders

Total Value$4.4K

Total Shares5,953

Combined PnL+$417.71

Yes — 36%No — 64%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 65%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

64% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 65% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 75% · 4

Aligned

ctrNo 80% · 5

Aligned

Top 1000No 64% · 11

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xBc43c8bfBC4d77c2FC9011adaD38Ba43b88996d3-1765231687816CTR	Yesavg 42¢	$1.9K	$2.2K	+$254.48	50% 583-574 (1157)
LU LuckyLoo	Noavg 75.8¢	$1.3K	$1.3K	+$10.57	46% 30563-35669 (66232)
GO GoalLineGhost	Noavg 62.8¢	$1.1K	$1.2K	+$190.57	50% 32540-32687 (65227)
FL Flaznorp	Noavg 57.5¢	$683.53	$921.18	+$237.65	51% 46870-44196 (91066)
SN SnakeBall	Noavg 58¢	$249.7	$242.76	-$6.94	50% 48537-48152 (96689)
RN1	Noavg 59.7¢	$198.01	$200.51	+$2.5	53% 70164-61737 (131901)
OM omnibus-076daa	Noavg 55¢	$166.32	$155.93	-$10.39	50% 23433-23429 (46862)
LI Limousin	Noavg 59¢	$231.82	$121.44	-$14.6	49% 2102-2190 (4292)
SE sentrio	Noavg 57.6¢	$193.78	$99.75	-$6.83	51% 27916-27361 (55277)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100	Yesavg 46.5¢	$92.16	$76.31	-$15.86	59% 52299-37045 (89344)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Yesavg 42.9¢	$36.37	$41.27	+$4.9	48% 2039-2213 (4252)
KY Kyn008<$100	Noavg 37.5¢	$25.86	$41.03	+$15.17	48% 313-335 (648)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Yesavg 44¢	$56.25	$26.72	+$1.97	48% 2079-2257 (4336)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Yesavg 49¢	$5	$2.38	-$0.08	48% 2032-2230 (4262)

0xBc43c8bfBC4d77c2FC9011adaD38Ba43b88996d3-1765231687816CTR

Yes

Invested

$1,933.2

Value

$2.2K

PnL

+$254.48

Record

50%

583-574 (1157)

LuckyLoo

Invested

$1,325.73

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$10.57

Record

46%

30563-35669 (66232)

GoalLineGhost

Invested

$1,050.09

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$190.57

Record

50%

32540-32687 (65227)

Flaznorp

Invested

$683.53

Value

$921.18

PnL

+$237.65

Record

51%

46870-44196 (91066)

SnakeBall

Invested

$249.7

Value

$242.76

PnL

-$6.94

Record

50%

48537-48152 (96689)

RN1

Invested

$198.01

Value

$200.51

PnL

+$2.5

Record

53%

70164-61737 (131901)

omnibus-076daa

Invested

$166.32

Value

$155.93

PnL

-$10.39

Record

50%

23433-23429 (46862)

Limousin

Invested

$231.82

Value

$121.44

PnL

-$14.6

Record

49%

2102-2190 (4292)

sentrio

Invested

$193.78

Value

$99.75

PnL

-$6.83

Record

51%

27916-27361 (55277)

VeryLucky888CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$92.16

Value

$76.31

PnL

-$15.86

Record

59%

52299-37045 (89344)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$36.37

Value

$41.27

PnL

+$4.9

Record

48%

2039-2213 (4252)

Kyn008<$100

Invested

$25.86

Value

$41.03

PnL

+$15.17

Record

48%

313-335 (648)

VenusianCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$56.25

Value

$26.72

PnL

+$1.97

Record

48%

2079-2257 (4336)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

Value

$2.38

PnL

-$0.08

Record

48%

2032-2230 (4262)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 70%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

9 of 14 top traders (64%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 65%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

64% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 65% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 75% · 4

Aligned

ctrNo 80% · 5

Aligned

Top 1000No 64% · 11

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance71.5%

69.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$39.78

Max Loss

-$100.00

139.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.