Will Hornchurch FC win on 2026-11-07?
4 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 87¢ · $603 held · ended Nov 7
⚖️
Neutral
No
8
No 50%
$602.93
-$176.99
79.4¢ → 87¢
+10% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 87%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 8 top traders (50%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
MA MadridTime | Noavg 79.8¢ | $269.94 | $174.15 | -$95.8 | 48% 1775-1911 (3686) |
FL FlaznorpCTR | Yesavg 21¢ | $137.3 | $133.99 | -$3.31 | 51% 27227-25781 (53008) |
LI LightParadox | Noavg 79¢ | $137.65 | $104.54 | -$33.1 | 49% 1800-1900 (3700) |
VE Venusian | Noavg 79¢ | $133.57 | $101.45 | -$32.12 | 49% 1843-1935 (3778) |
OV overtimemarkets.xyz-singlesCTR<$100 | Yesavg 50¢ | $45 | $45 | +$0 | — 1-0 (1) |
LO lonmi2511<$100 | Noavg 78.9¢ | $46.13 | $30.13 | -$16 | 55% 1426-1175 (2601) |
GO GoalLineGhostCTR<$100 | Yesavg 19¢ | $6.63 | $7.15 | +$0.52 | 50% 28937-28754 (57691) |
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100 | Yesavg 22.4¢ | $3.69 | $6.52 | +$2.83 | 49% 14983-15895 (30878) |
Invested
$269.94
Value
$174.15
PnL
-$95.8
Record
48%
1775-1911 (3686)
Invested
$137.3
Value
$133.99
PnL
-$3.31
Record
51%
27227-25781 (53008)
Invested
$137.65
Value
$104.54
PnL
-$33.1
Record
49%
1800-1900 (3700)
Invested
$133.57
Value
$101.45
PnL
-$32.12
Record
49%
1843-1935 (3778)
Invested
$45
Value
$45
PnL
+$0
Record
—
1-0 (1)
Invested
$46.13
Value
$30.13
PnL
-$16
Record
55%
1426-1175 (2601)
Invested
$6.63
Value
$7.15
PnL
+$0.52
Record
50%
28937-28754 (57691)
Invested
$3.69
Value
$6.52
PnL
+$2.83
Record
49%
14983-15895 (30878)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
87.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.