Will Blackpool FC win on 2026-11-07?

2 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (20%) · Yes at 55¢ · $14K held · ended Nov 7

Yes55¢No45¢Ended Sat, Nov 7, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 20%

Total Value

$14.2K

Combined PnL

-$113.17

Smart Money Entry

57¢ → 54.5¢

-4% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 55%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

2 of 10 top traders (20%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes55%

No46%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes2 traders

Total Value$7.6K

Total Shares14,051

Combined PnL-$418.87

No8 traders

Total Value$6.6K

Total Shares14,102

Combined PnL+$305.7

Yes — 20%No — 80%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
JU justbusiness1	Yesavg 57¢	$8.0K	$7.6K	-$418.87	54% 271-235 (506)
MA MadridTimeCTR	Noavg 43.1¢	$2.1K	$2.3K	+$141.36	48% 1775-1911 (3686)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Noavg 43.2¢	$2.0K	$2.1K	+$111.41	51% 27227-25781 (53008)
VE VenusianCTR	Noavg 43¢	$927.8	$991.52	+$63.72	49% 1843-1935 (3778)
0X 0x9f15613ebf1f36d4bc679e1211d1fc567cf9bdb3CTR	Noavg 44¢	$790.03	$781.06	-$8.98	50% 2774-2749 (5523)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR	Noavg 43.4¢	$427.41	$423.73	-$3.67	50% 28937-28754 (57691)
SE sentrio<$100	Yesavg 54¢	$32.61	$32.61	+$0	50% 26409-26025 (52434)
LO lonmi2511CTR<$100	Noavg 44¢	$25.89	$27.07	+$1.18	55% 1426-1175 (2601)
OD OddstormCTR<$100	Noavg 46.2¢	$20.8	$20.7	+$0.67	48% 7449-7982 (15431)
rayvanmechelenCTR<$100	Noavg 44¢	$7.95	$7.95	+$0	53% 2699-2381 (5080)

justbusiness1

Yes

Invested

$7,978.86

Value

$7.6K

PnL

-$418.87

Record

54%

271-235 (506)

MadridTimeCTR

Invested

$2,108.92

Value

$2.3K

PnL

+$141.36

Record

48%

1775-1911 (3686)

FlaznorpCTR

Invested

$2,000.55

Value

$2.1K

PnL

+$111.41

Record

51%

27227-25781 (53008)

VenusianCTR

Invested

$927.8

Value

$991.52

PnL

+$63.72

Record

49%

1843-1935 (3778)

0x9f15613ebf1f36d4bc679e1211d1fc567cf9bdb3CTR

Invested

$790.03

Value

$781.06

PnL

-$8.98

Record

50%

2774-2749 (5523)

GoalLineGhostCTR

Invested

$427.41

Value

$423.73

PnL

-$3.67

Record

50%

28937-28754 (57691)

sentrio<$100

Yes

Invested

$32.61

Value

$32.61

PnL

+$0

Record

50%

26409-26025 (52434)

lonmi2511CTR<$100

Invested

$25.89

Value

$27.07

PnL

+$1.18

Record

55%

1426-1175 (2601)

OddstormCTR<$100

Invested

$20.8

Value

$20.7

PnL

+$0.67

Record

48%

7449-7982 (15431)

rayvanmechelenCTR<$100

Invested

$7.95

Value

$7.95

PnL

+$0

Record

53%

2699-2381 (5080)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 55%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Yes

2 of 10 top traders (20%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance56.7%

54.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$76.26

Max Loss

-$100.00

176.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.