Will FC Halifax Town win on 2026-11-07?

3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 73¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 7

Yes28¢No72¢Ends Sat, Nov 7, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 50%

Total Value

$2.3K

Combined PnL

$38.47

Smart Money Entry

74.5¢ → 72.5¢

-3% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 73%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 6 top traders (50%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes28%

No73%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No3 traders

Total Value$1.5K

Total Shares1,906

Combined PnL-$36.61

Yes3 traders

Total Value$814.35

Total Shares3,016

Combined PnL+$75.08

No — 50%Yes — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrNo 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000No 60% · 5

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Noavg 74.7¢	$1.3K	$1.3K	-$36.99	51% 26991-25572 (52563)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR	Yesavg 24¢	$719.13	$809.31	+$75.2	50% 21519-21799 (43318)
SE sentrio	Noavg 73¢	$187.36	$188.64	+$1.28	50% 26346-25970 (52316)
rayvanmechelen<$100	Noavg 77¢	$20	$19.09	-$0.91	53% 2679-2359 (5038)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Yesavg 28¢	$3.75	$3.69	-$0.07	50% 1808-1796 (3604)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Yesavg 28¢	$1.4	$1.35	-$0.05	48% 1730-1861 (3591)

Flaznorp

Invested

$1,296.59

Value

$1.3K

PnL

-$36.99

Record

51%

26991-25572 (52563)

omnibus-076daaCTR

Yes

Invested

$719.13

Value

$809.31

PnL

+$75.2

Record

50%

21519-21799 (43318)

sentrio

Invested

$187.36

Value

$188.64

PnL

+$1.28

Record

50%

26346-25970 (52316)

rayvanmechelen<$100

Invested

$20

Value

$19.09

PnL

-$0.91

Record

53%

2679-2359 (5038)

LimousinCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.75

Value

$3.69

PnL

-$0.07

Record

50%

1808-1796 (3604)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.4

Value

$1.35

PnL

-$0.05

Record

48%

1730-1861 (3591)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 73%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 6 top traders (50%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrNo 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000No 60% · 5

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance74.5%

72.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$34.28

Max Loss

-$100.00

134.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.