Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (51%). 4 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Will Cheltenham Town FC win on 2026-11-07?
4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (67%) · Yes at 50¢ · $6K held · ends Nov 7
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
6
Yes 67%
$6.2K
$157.8
53.2¢ → 49.5¢
-7% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 50%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 6 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors No 51%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
9h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
67% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
OM omnibus-076daa | Noavg 46.5¢ | $2.8K | $3.1K | +$274.87 | 50% 21413-21676 (43089) |
 VeryLucky888CTR | Yesavg 53.5¢ | $3.2K | $2.9K | -$117.13 | 58% 47122-33996 (81118) |
FL FlaznorpCTR | Yesavg 49¢ | $192.08 | $194.04 | +$0 | 51% 26515-25136 (51651) |
SE sentrioCTR<$100 | Yesavg 50¢ | $5 | $5 | +$0 | 50% 26140-25802 (51942) |
CA CannaeCTR<$100 | Yesavg 50¢ | $5 | $4.95 | +$0.15 | 53% 16942-15068 (32010) |
LI Limousin<$100 | Noavg 52.2¢ | $2.62 | $2.53 | -$0.09 | 51% 1672-1583 (3255) |
Invested
$2,834.71
Value
$3.1K
PnL
+$274.87
Record
50%
21413-21676 (43089)
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$3,208.49
Value
$2.9K
PnL
-$117.13
Record
58%
47122-33996 (81118)
Invested
$192.08
Value
$194.04
PnL
+$0
Record
51%
26515-25136 (51651)
Invested
$5
Value
$5
PnL
+$0
Record
50%
26140-25802 (51942)
Invested
$5
Value
$4.95
PnL
+$0.15
Record
53%
16942-15068 (32010)
Invested
$2.62
Value
$2.53
PnL
-$0.09
Record
51%
1672-1583 (3255)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
49.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.