Spread: Burton Albion FC (-3.5)

3 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold AFC Rushden & Diamonds (43%) · AFC Rushden & Diamonds at 68¢ · $335 held · ends Nov 7

Burton Albion FC33¢AFC Rushden & Diamonds67¢Ends Sat, Nov 7, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

AFC Rushden & Diamonds

Consensus Traders

AFC Rushden & Diamonds 43%

Total Value

$334.87

Combined PnL

-$1.96

Smart Money Entry

66.7¢ → 67.5¢

+1% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralAFC Rushden & Diamonds at 68%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

AFC Rushden & Diamonds

3 of 7 top traders (43%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Burton Albion FC33%

AFC Rushden & Diamonds68%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

AFC Rushden & Diamonds3 traders

Total Value$190.24

Total Shares279

Combined PnL+$1.95

Burton Albion FC4 traders

Total Value$144.63

Total Shares442

Combined PnL-$3.91

AFC Rushden & Diamonds — 43%Burton Albion FC — 57%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 86%

Freshness

Mature

16h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

43% of non-arb traders are on AFC Rushden & Diamonds. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 86% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on AFC Rushden & Diamonds) and the top 1000 (6 on Burton Albion FC) disagree here.

whaleAFC Rushden & Diamonds 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrAFC Rushden & Diamonds 100% · 2

Aligned

Hand-pickedAFC Rushden & Diamonds 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Burton Albion FC 67% · 6

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	AFC Rushden & Diamondsavg 66.9¢	$129.22	$130.47	+$1.25	51% 27202-25761 (52963)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Burton Albion FCavg 33¢	$74.91	$74.91	+$0	49% 1833-1925 (3758)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Burton Albion FCavg 34.4¢	$42.96	$40.57	-$2.4	48% 1767-1905 (3672)
VeryLucky888<$100	AFC Rushden & Diamondsavg 66¢	$31.6	$32.32	+$0.48	58% 47486-34282 (81768)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Burton Albion FCavg 34.2¢	$30.06	$28.56	-$1.51	50% 1843-1850 (3693)
SE sentrio<$100	AFC Rushden & Diamondsavg 67¢	$27.23	$27.45	+$0.22	50% 26397-26018 (52415)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Burton Albion FCavg 34.1¢	$0.63	$0.6	-$0.01	49% 1791-1892 (3683)

Flaznorp

AFC Rushden & Diamonds

Invested

$129.22

Value

$130.47

PnL

+$1.25

Record

51%

27202-25761 (52963)

VenusianCTR<$100

Burton Albion FC

Invested

$74.91

Value

$74.91

PnL

+$0

Record

49%

1833-1925 (3758)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Burton Albion FC

Invested

$42.96

Value

$40.57

PnL

-$2.4

Record

48%

1767-1905 (3672)

VeryLucky888<$100

AFC Rushden & Diamonds

Invested

$31.6

Value

$32.32

PnL

+$0.48

Record

58%

47486-34282 (81768)

LimousinCTR<$100

Burton Albion FC

Invested

$30.06

Value

$28.56

PnL

-$1.51

Record

50%

1843-1850 (3693)

sentrio<$100

AFC Rushden & Diamonds

Invested

$27.23

Value

$27.45

PnL

+$0.22

Record

50%

26397-26018 (52415)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Burton Albion FC

Invested

$0.63

Value

$0.6

PnL

-$0.01

Record

49%

1791-1892 (3683)

Research grade

NeutralAFC Rushden & Diamonds at 68%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

AFC Rushden & Diamonds

3 of 7 top traders (43%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 86%

Freshness

Mature

16h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

43% of non-arb traders are on AFC Rushden & Diamonds. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 86% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on AFC Rushden & Diamonds) and the top 1000 (6 on Burton Albion FC) disagree here.

whaleAFC Rushden & Diamonds 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrAFC Rushden & Diamonds 100% · 2

Aligned

Hand-pickedAFC Rushden & Diamonds 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Burton Albion FC 67% · 6

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that AFC Rushden & Diamonds wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance69.6%

67.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$43.72

Max Loss

-$100.00

143.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.