Will Cambridge United FC win on 2026-11-07?
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (60%) · No at 59¢ · $3K held · ends Nov 6
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 60%
$3.1K
-$108.22
57.7¢ → 58.5¢
+1% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 59%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 97%
Freshness
Fresh
12h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
OM omnibus-076daa | Noavg 58¢ | $1.9K | $1.8K | -$104 | 50% 21104-21351 (42455) |
 VeryLucky888CTR | Yesavg 42¢ | $3.0K | $1.2K | -$13.91 | 58% 46317-33437 (79754) |
FL Flaznorp | Noavg 54.2¢ | $187.37 | $109.61 | +$8.12 | 51% 25600-24316 (49916) |
OD Oddstorm<$100 | Noavg 57.1¢ | $50.24 | $51.9 | +$1.73 | 48% 7320-7822 (15142) |
SE sentrioCTR<$100 | Yesavg 43¢ | $10.45 | $4.34 | -$0.16 | 50% 25741-25428 (51169) |
Invested
$1,859.01
Value
$1.8K
PnL
-$104
Record
50%
21104-21351 (42455)
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$3,000
Value
$1.2K
PnL
-$13.91
Record
58%
46317-33437 (79754)
Invested
$187.37
Value
$109.61
PnL
+$8.12
Record
51%
25600-24316 (49916)
Invested
$50.24
Value
$51.9
PnL
+$1.73
Record
48%
7320-7822 (15142)
Invested
$10.45
Value
$4.34
PnL
-$0.16
Record
50%
25741-25428 (51169)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
58.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.