Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Boreham Wood FC, while the market favors Wigan Athletic FC (69%). 3 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Spread: Boreham Wood FC (-1.5)
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Boreham Wood FC (60%) · Boreham Wood FC at 32¢ · $481 held · ends Nov 7
⚖️
Neutral
Boreham Wood FC
5
Boreham Wood FC 60%
$480.91
-$15.57
33.5¢ → 31.5¢
-6% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralBoreham Wood FC at 32%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors Wigan Athletic FC 69%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 97%
Freshness
Mature
15h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on Boreham Wood FC. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL FlaznorpCTR | Boreham Wood FCavg 33.6¢ | $291.94 | $277.82 | -$14.12 | 51% 27202-25761 (52963) |
 VeryLucky888 | Wigan Athletic FCavg 67.9¢ | $177.85 | $178.23 | -$3.55 | 58% 47486-34282 (81768) |
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100 | Boreham Wood FCavg 32.1¢ | $10.61 | $12.13 | +$1.52 | 49% 1791-1892 (3683) |
SE sentrioCTR<$100 | Boreham Wood FCavg 32.6¢ | $8.32 | $8.17 | +$0.62 | 50% 26397-26018 (52415) |
 rayvanmechelen<$100 | Wigan Athletic FCavg 67¢ | $4.5 | $4.56 | -$0.03 | 53% 2695-2376 (5071) |
Invested
$291.94
Value
$277.82
PnL
-$14.12
Record
51%
27202-25761 (52963)
VeryLucky888Invested
$177.85
Value
$178.23
PnL
-$3.55
Record
58%
47486-34282 (81768)
Invested
$10.61
Value
$12.13
PnL
+$1.52
Record
49%
1791-1892 (3683)
Invested
$8.32
Value
$8.17
PnL
+$0.62
Record
50%
26397-26018 (52415)
rayvanmechelen<$100Invested
$4.5
Value
$4.56
PnL
-$0.03
Record
53%
2695-2376 (5071)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
31.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.